US DATA: Redbook Data Suggests January's Retail Sales Weakness Was Temporary

• RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16  
• RES 2: 6107.50 High Dec 26 
• RES 1: 6078.25 Intraday high            
• PRICE: 6071.00 @ 16:06 GMT Jan 20 
• SUP 1: 5961.75 Low Jan 16         
• SUP 2: 5879.50/5809.00 Low Jan 15 / 13 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
• SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg

S&P E-Minis are trading higher, marking an extension of last week’s bull phase. The move higher undermines the recent bearish theme. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA and attention is on resistance at 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. Clearance of 6107.50 would strengthen a bullish theme. Key support has been defined at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. A reversal lower and a breach of this level would reinstate a bear theme.

GBP STIRs away from hawkish session extremes on the headlines playing down the likelihood of imminent tariffs from the Trump administration.

• That leaves 61.5bp of BoE cuts priced through year-end vs. ~64bp early today and ~59bp at one stage this afternoon.
• A reminder that ~36bp of cuts were briefly priced through year-end late last Tuesday.
• The next 25bp cut is still fully discounted through the end of the March MPC meeting, with ~21.5bp priced for next month.
• SONIA futures last flat to -3.0.
• UK labour market data is due first thing tomorrow (07:00 London), expect our full preview of that release shortly.

SX5E (21st Mar) 5600c, bought for 8 in 19k vs 1.33k at 5190.00.