US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Regional Feds Signal Sharp Rise In Factory Prices In Feb
Feb-27 16:48
The 5 regional Fed manufacturing surveys (Empire, Philly, Dallas, Richmond, Kansas City) suggest that activity is pulling back slightly from January's 33-month best (based on MNI's composite average of the surveys).
- While February's composite activity levels slowed from prior, they were positive overall for the 2nd consecutive month for the first time since mid-2022.
- But we also note that inflationary pressures have clearly bottomed out for manufacturers, with prices paid rising sharply in February to some of the highest levels seen since mid-2022 when inflation pressures were on the downslope from extremely elevated levels.
- As we noted earlier this week, this is probably reflecting tariffs already announced by the Trump administration prior to the February surveys being conducted, but also contain some hint of front-running in activity amid uncertainty around future policy shifts.
- With multiple rounds of new tariffs set to hit in March and April, it's unclear whether there is any relief in sight.
- With Friday's release of MNI Chicago PMI rounding out the February surveys, we note that next week's ISM Manufacturing report shows that the headline index is seen dipping in line with the regional Feds (consensus 50.5 vs 50.9 in Jan), but for the prices category (which registered 54.9 in Jan with no consensus yet for Feb) we would not be surprised to see a figure in the high 50s or even low 60s.
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ITALY: Meloni Under Investigation Over Release Of Libyan Judicial Police Head
Jan-28 16:41
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has released a video on social media confirming that public prosecutor Francesco Lovoi has confirmed that she, as well as Justice Minister Carlo Nordio, Interior Minister Matteo Piantedosim and Secretary of the Council of Ministers Alfredo Mantovano, have been placed under investigation in a case relating to the repatriation of a Libyan police officer. Reuters notes Meloni "is under no obligation to resign, and being placed under investigation in Italy does not imply guilt, nor mean that formal charges will necessarily follow."
- Meloni: "Today's news is this: the public prosecutor Francesco Lovoi, the same one from the failed trial of Matteo Salvini for kidnapping, has just sent me a notice of investigation for the crimes of aiding and abetting and embezzlement in relation to the affair of the repatriation of the citizen Almasri,[...]".
- As The Telegraph reported last week, Meloni "is under intense pressure to explain why Italy released an alleged Libyan general who is wanted for committing war crimes and crimes against humanity. The Italian prime minister is facing questions from the International Criminal Court, as well as opposition parties, over the detention and sudden release of Osama Almasri Najim, the chief of Libya’s judicial police."
- Meloni claims "I will not be blackmailed, I will not allow myself to be intimidated, which is why I am, let's say, disliked by those who do not want Italy to change and become better,"
US DATA: GDPNow Revised Up To 3.2% In Penultimate Q4 Release
Jan-28 16:38
- The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow for Q4 has been pushed higher to 3.2% annualized for Q4 from 3.0% in the Jan 17 update, following already robust real GDP growth of 3.1% in Q3 and 3.0% in Q2.
- The upward revision came as real gross private domestic investment growth is now seen at 0.1% vs -0.9% previously, although it was driven by expectations of a smaller than previously tracked drag from inventories rather than stronger investment.
- Domestic demand contributions continue to look strong, pointing to 3.4pp after the 3.7pp in Q3 was the strongest since 1Q23.
- Within that, consumer spending is still seen adding 2.5pp in Q4 to match the strong 2.5pp in Q3.
- Tomorrow sees the final estimate before the official Q4 advance release on Thursday.
US STOCKS: Early Equities Roundup: Tech Sector Leads Modest Rebound
Jan-28 16:32
- Still well off last Friday's levels, socks are trading higher Tuesday - continuing to unwind yesterday's sell-off tied to China's AI startup DeepSeek. New competition for US AI developers rattled global markets Monday, the tech heavy Nasdaq -3.65% as leading chip maker stocks tumbled as much as 25%. Currently, the DJIA trades up 62.08 points (0.14%) at 44774.11, S&P E-Minis up 18.5 points (0.31%) at 6065, Nasdaq up 190.2 points (1%) at 19533.06.
- Information Technology and Communication Services sectors outperformed in the first half, software & hardware makers rebounding faster than semiconductor makers: Crowdstrike +7.83%, Salesforce +5.45%, Apple Inc +3.83%, Arista Networks +3.0% while Nvidia regained approximately 2% after falling over 18% on Monday.
- Interactive media and entertainment shares helped support the Communication Services sector: Alphabet +1.69%, Meta +1.62%, Live Nation +1.26%.
- On the flipside, Utilities and Energy sectors underperformed in the first half, electricity providers and oil companies weaker with Constellation Energy -4.83%, NextEra Energy -4.37%, Entergy -2.6%, Diamondback Energy -1.0%.
- Earnings update after the close: NextEra Energy, Starbucks, Qorvo and Stryker Corp. Heavy Wednesday schedule: Wednesday: Super Micro Computer, Corning, Danaher, Norfolk Southern, Flex, Brinker International, Lennox Int, Hess Corp, MSCI Inc, General Dynamics, Otis Worldwide, Stifel Financial, T-Mobile US, Nasdaq, IBM, Waste Management, Tesla, ServiceNow, Lam Research Corp, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Ameriprise Financial, Wolfspeed, Western Digital, United Rentals, Teradyne, Las Vegas Sands Corp, Raymond James Financial, Whirlpool Corp and Dow Inc.
