USDCAD TECHS: Remains Above Last Week’s Low
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4473/4543 High Mar 10 / 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4453 @ 07:57 GMT Mar 12
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
The bull cycle in USDCAD that started Feb 14 remains in play for now, and recent weakness appears corrective. The pair has recovered from its Mar 6 low and a continuation higher would signal scope for a test of the short-term bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. A break of this level would instead expose key short-term support at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low.
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GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt Opening calls, 93.24/93.29.
EQUITIES: EU Cash opening calls
Estox 50: +0.33%, Dax: +0.24%, CAC: +0.10%, FTSE +0.18%, SMI +0.20%.
STIR: GBP STIRs Pricing ~60bp Of Further '25 Cuts
U.S. tariff headlines dominated over the weekend, providing some modest dovish readthrough for GBP STIRs this morning.
- Elsewhere, January’s KPMG/REC Report on Jobs provided another downbeat assessment of the UK labour market.
- BoE-dated OIS little changed to ~3bp more dovish across ’25 contracts, showing 6bp of cuts for March, 26bp through May and 59.5bp through year-end.
- Goldman Sachs believe that “the Bank’s “gradual and careful” approach to cuts suggests a March cut is unlikely, although there is likely asymmetry to June pricing given potential downside growth risks both from domestic data and from the imposition of global tariffs (although it’s likely the UK will be largely spared from country-specific tariffs).”
- SONIA futures +0.5 to -1.0.
- Little of note on the UK calendar today, with comments from BoE Governor Bailey & MPC member Mann (after her dovish pivot) eyed on Tuesday.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Cut-Adjusted SONIA Rate (bp) |
Mar-25 | 4.393 | -6.1 |
May-25 | 4.195 | -25.9 |
Jun-25 | 4.118 | -33.7 |
Aug-25 | 3.978 | -47.6 |
Sep-25 | 3.944 | -51.0 |
Nov-25 | 3.876 | -57.9 |
Dec-25 | 3.860 | -59.4 |
