EURJPY TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

Dec-22 06:50
  • RES 4: 146.73 High Dec 15 and a key resistance
  • RES 3: 145.83 High Dec 20
  • RES 2: 143.50 Low Dec 14 and a recent breakout level
  • RES 1: 142.00 Round number resistance
  • PRICE: 140.36 @ 06:46 GMT Dec 22
  • SUP 1: 138.81 Low Dec 20
  • SUP 2: 138.14 4.0% 10-dma envelope
  • SUP 3: 138.06 Low Sep 28
  • SUP 4: 137.40 Low Sep 26 and a key support

EURJPY traded sharply lower Tuesday as the JPY rallied - the cross remains bearish. A key support at 140.77, the Dec 2 low and a bear trigger, has been cleared. This marks a resumption of the bear cycle that started on Oct 21 and opens 138.06, the Sep 28 low and 137.40, the Sep 26 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at 143.50, the Dec 14 low and a recent breakout level. Short-term gains would likely be a correction.

Historical bullets

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Bounce Extends

Nov-22 06:46
  • RES 4: 145.11 Low Oct 27 and a recent breakout level
  • RES 3: 143.62 50-day EMA
  • RES 2: 142.48 High Nov 11
  • RES 1: 142.25 High Nov 21
  • PRICE: 141.85 @ 06:45 GMT Nov 22
  • SUP 1: 139.64/37.68 Low Nov 18 / 15 and a bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 137.37 Low Aug 29
  • SUP 3: 135.82 Low Aug 23
  • SUP 4: 135.49 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg

Short-term trend conditions in USDJPY remain bearish and Monday’s gais are considered corrective. The move higher is allowing a recent oversold trend condition to unwind. Resistance to watch is at 143.62, the 50-day EMA. A break of this EMA would signal scope for a stronger correction. On the downside, a break of 137.68, Nov 15 low, would resume the downtrend and open 137.37, the Aug 29 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Fresh Short-Term Cycle High

Nov-22 06:24
  • RES 4: 124.35 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Sep 28 bear leg
  • RES 3: 121.32 High Aug 25
  • RES 2: 120.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 1: 119.49 High Nov 21
  • PRICE: 118.78 @ Close Nov 21
  • SUP 1: 116.05/113.80 20-day EMA / Low Nov 9
  • SUP 2: 112.45 Low Nov 8 and a key short-term support
  • SUP 3: 112.07/110.14 Low Oct 25 / 14
  • SUP 4: 108.82 Low Oct 21

BTP futures traded to a fresh short-term cycle high Monday. The outlook is bullish. The contract has breached 117.93, Oct 27 high plus a key resistance at 119.06, Sep 8 high, has been pierced. A clear break of 119.06 would pave the way for a continuation of the bull cycle and open the 120.00 handle. Initial firm support is seen at 116.05, the 20-day EMA. Key support lies at 112.45, the Nov 8 low. A break below the latter would reinstate a bearish theme.

LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)

Nov-22 06:18
Date Time Period Event
22-Nov 0700 Oct Public Sector Finances
23-Nov 0930 Nov S&P Global Manufacturing / Services PMI (flash)
23-Nov 1900 ---- BOE Pill Speech at Beesley Lecture Series
24-Nov 0945 ---- BOE Ramsden Speech at BOE Watchers’ Conference
24-Nov 1030 ---- BOE Pill Panelist at BOE Watchers’ Conference
24-Nov 1345 ---- BOE Mann Panelist at BOE Watchers’ Conference
28-Nov 1530 ---- DMO Q1 Consultation Meetings
29-Nov 0930 Nov BOE Lending to Individuals / M4
30-Nov 0001 Nov BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
30-Nov 0730 ---- DMO Publishes Q3 Issuance Calendar
01-Dec 0930 Nov S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI (final)
05-Dec 0930 Nov S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI (final)
05-Dec 1530 ---- DMO consultation meetings to discuss Q1 issuance

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