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Historical bullets

COMMODITIES: Gold Continues to Trade Close to Recent Highs

Jan-29 09:57

Monday’s move lower in WTI futures marks an extension of the current corrective cycle. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention turns to support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.22. A clear break of the 50-day average would suggest scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a reversal higher would focus attention on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high and a key resistance. Gold is trading closer to its recent highs. A bull cycle is in play and the recent breach of resistance at $2726.2, the Dec 12 high, reinforces current conditions. Sights are on $2790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, the first key support to watch is $2675.2, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower and a breach of this average would reinstate a bearish threat.

  • WTI Crude down $0.71 or -0.96% at $73.11
  • Natural Gas down $0.13 or -3.8% at $3.339
  • Gold spot down $0.53 or -0.02% at $2764
  • Copper down $2 or -0.47% at $422.85
  • Silver up $0.02 or +0.07% at $30.4769
  • Platinum down $0.29 or -0.03% at $945.77

EQUITIES: Eurostoxx 50 Futures Extend Recovery from Monday's Low

Jan-29 09:57

A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact and the move lower from last Friday’s high, appears to have been a correction. A deeper retracement would allow an overbought trend condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up highlighting a dominant uptrend. The first important support to watch is 5108.69, the 20-day EMA. A resumption of the uptrend would open 5298.50, a Fibonacci projection. The S&P E-Minis contract remains above Monday’s low. Key short-term support to watch lies at 5961.75, the Jan 16 low (pierced). For now, the recent sharp pullback appears corrective, however, a clear breach of 5961.75 would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 5943.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.

  • Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 397.91 pts or +1.02% at 39414.78 and the TOPIX ended 18.69 pts higher or +0.68% at 2775.59.
  • Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 93.71 pts or +0.44% at 21525.84, FTSE 100 higher by 4.98 pts or +0.06% at 8538.74, CAC 40 down 33.4 pts or -0.42% at 7865.03 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 31.83 pts or +0.61% at 5227.87.
  • Dow Jones mini down 55 pts or -0.12% at 44976, S&P 500 mini up 3 pts or +0.05% at 6100.25, NASDAQ mini up 73.5 pts or +0.34% at 21655.

EGBS: Bunds to Highs & OATs Widen On Heightened French Risk

Jan-29 09:55

Fresh demand for Bunds on the back of spread flow surrounding increased Budget and political risks in France. OATs unwind their early tightening to German paper and now widen vs. all major EGBs.

  • Bund futures as high 131.80, next resistance at 132.04.
  • We had previously suggested that ongoing French fiscal and political risk would limit any further OAT tightening and this is ringing true at this stage, with the OAT/Bund spread back towards 75bp after failure to test 70bp in recent days.
  • More details on the latest French developments to follow.