EM LATAM CREDIT: Republic of Argentina (ARGENT; Caa3pos/CCC/CCC) Decree Approved
“Congress Upholds Milei’s Decree to Back New IMF Argentina Deal” – BBG
Neutral for bond prices
• The decree signed by Milei enabling him to contract with the IMF for a new funding program was approved by the lower house with a vote of 129-108 which will be sufficient to keep the decree in effect.
• There are still many details of the IMF agreement yet to be revealed with future FX policy a key consideration and that may have caused a weakening in the ARS FX rate in recent days.
• Finance minister Caputo has said in the past that he didn’t expect the IMF to push for any immediate changes in FX policy and the administration said it planned to lift capital controls next year
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EURJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 164.08 High Jan 24
- RES 3: 162.71 76.4% retracement of the Dec 30 - Feb 10 bear leg
- RES 2: 162.49 High Jan 29
- RES 1: 160.97/161.19 50-day EMA / High Feb 13
- PRICE: 158.65 @ 16:15 GMT Feb 17
- SUP 1: 157.90/155.61 Low Feb 12 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
Recent gains in EURJPY have allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. For now, resistance at 160.97, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. It has been pierced, but a clear break is required to strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension towards 162.71, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, the cross has pulled back from its recent highs. A stronger reversal would refocus attention on 155.61, the Feb 10 low and bear trigger.
US: President Trump Emphasises Desire for Reciprocity on Trade
- In a long post on reciprocal tariffs (via x.com) President Trump has said the following:
- "On Trade, I have decided, for purposes of Fairness, that I will charge a RECIPROCAL Tariff meaning, whatever Countries charge the United States of America, we will charge them - No more, no less!"
- "I have instructed my Secretary of State, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of the Treasury, and United States Trade Representative (USTR) to do all work necessary to deliver RECIPROCITY to our System of Trade!"
- Full link here: https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1891572283161944433
USDJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 156.75 High Jan 23
- RES 2: 155.89 High Feb 3
- RES 1: 154.36/80 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance / High Feb 12
- PRICE: 151.40 @ 16:15 GMT Feb 17
- SUP 1: 150.93 Low Feb 07 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 149.69 Low Dec 9
- SUP 3: 148.65 Low Dec 3 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 4: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24
USDJPY has pulled back from last week’s high. The latest move down highlights that - for now - resistance around the 50-day EMA, remains intact. The average is at 154.36. A clear break of the 50-day average is required to highlight a stronger bullish reversal. This would open 155.89, the Feb 3 high. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 150.93, the Feb 7 low. Clearance of this level would resume the bear cycle that started on Jan 10.
