EM LATAM CREDIT: Republic of Bolivia (BOLIVI; Caa3/CCC+/CCC-): Alliance Broken

• Broader Equities are extending losses following Trump increasing Tariffs on Canada.
• The Emini futures trades at its lowest level since September and could target the September low at 5499.25, so far printed a 5554.50 low.

Posting on X, Ontario Premier Doug Ford says that "Ontario and Canada will not back down until President Trump’s tariffs are gone for good." Ford confirmed that he will be interviewed on CNBC at 1105ET (1505GMT, 1605CET). 

• Ford's comments come in the wake of US President Donald Trump's escalation of incoming tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium, threats to the country's motors industry, and repeated calls for Canada to become the US' 51st state in a recent Truth Social post (see 'US-CANADA: Trump Escalates Trade War With Canada', 1416GMT).
• This latest escalation comes amid a transfer of power in Canada, with the transition process underway following former BoC and BoE governor Mark Carney's election as governing Liberal Party leader on 9 March. Globe and Mail reports that Carney is "expecting a “seamless” and “quick” transition of government after his Monday talks with outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and cabinet."
• The Globe and Mail report claims that as part of his first cabinet, Carney "will probably keep the current ministers who’ve been busiest on Canada-U.S. trade issues: Mélanie Joly in Foreign Affairs, David McGuinty in Public Safety and Dominic LeBlanc in Finance."

The January JOLTS report saw higher than expected job openings whilst annual revisions have left a slightly weaker than first thought trend early in 2H24 before some recent firming. The quits rate increase was exaggerated by rounding but is nevertheless a rare second month with an unrounded increase although it’s too soon to materially show impact from DOGE pressure. 

• Job openings were higher than expected in January at 7.74m (sa, cons 7.6m) after a downward revised 7.51m (initial 7.6m) in Dec.
• Ratio to unemployed: 1.13 after a downward revised 1.09 (initially 1.10) in Dec and 1.13 (initially 1.15) in Nov.  
• This ratio continues to broadly stabilize, having averaged 1.1 since June, although the latest profile looks slightly more upward sloping than before today’s annual revisions: it has now averaged 1.06 in Jul-Sep before 1.11 in Oct-Jan. For context, it averaged 1.2 in 2019 and 1.0 in 2017-18.
• The 0.2pp increase in the quits rate was exaggerated by rounding (it lifted 0.10pps from 1.947% to 2.053%) but it’s still a second monthly increase on an unrounded basis after a prior steady trend decline and is the highest since May 2024.  
• Federal government quit rates remained particularly low at 0.4% (within total government at 0.8%) but this lagged January data won’t show impact from DOGE pressure on federal government roles.
• The hire rates meanwhile continued to stabilize near recent lows, at 3.4% or 3.7% for the private sector, at levels comfortably below those in the build-up to the pandemic (all workers 3.9% 2019, 3.8% 2017-18).