GBPUSD TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.2667 High Dec 19
- RES 3: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 swing
- RES 2: 1.2576 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 1.2503/23 50-day EMA / High Jan 27 and key resistance
- PRICE: 1.2479 @ 06:18 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: 1.2249 Low Jan 3
- SUP 2: 1.2161 Low Jan 17 / 20
- SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
Resistance in GBPUSD remains intact and the recent pullback highlights a potential bearish threat. The move down signals the end of the Jan 13 - 27 correction and note that 1.2503, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. Furthermore, MA studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 1.2100, the Jan 13 low and bear trigger. A clear break of the 50-day average would alter the picture.
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 06-Jan | 815 | ES | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 06-Jan | 845 | IT | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 06-Jan | 850 | FR | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 06-Jan | 855 | DE | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 06-Jan | 900 | EU | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (f) |
| 06-Jan | 1300 | DE | HICP (p) |
| 07-Jan | 745 | FR | HICP (p) |
| 07-Jan | 830 | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 07-Jan | 900 | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 07-Jan | 900 | DE | Bavaria CPI |
| 07-Jan | 1000 | EU | HICP (p) / Unemployment |
| 07-Jan | 1000 | IT | HICP (p) |
| 08-Jan | 700 | DE | Manufacturing Orders/ Retail Sales |
| 08-Jan | 745 | FR | Consumer Sentiment / Foreign Trade |
| 08-Jan | 1000 | EU | EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator |
| 08-Jan | 1000 | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 08-Jan | 1000 | EU | PPI |
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.0825 High Nov 7
- RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 2: 1.0543 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0414/0458 20-day EMA / High Dec 30
- PRICE: 1.0311 @ 06:12 GMT Jan 6
- SUP 1: 1.0226 Low Jan 2
- SUP 2: 1.0201 61.8% of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.0198 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
- SUP 4: 1.0167 2.0% 10-dma envelope
The trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and last Thursday’s sharp sell-off reinforces current conditions. The break lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started late September last year. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 1.0201, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0414, the 20-day EMA.
BUND TECHS: (H5) Approaching Key Support
- RES 4: 137.75 Low Dec 10
- RES 3: 135.15 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 134.30 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 133.48 High Jan 3
- PRICE: 132.36 05:51 GMT Jan 6
- SUP 1: 132.22 Intraday low
- SUP 2 132.00 Low Nov 6 and key support
- SUP 3: 130.78 123..6% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull leg
- SUP 4: 130.00 Psychological round number
The trend cycle in Bund futures remains bearish and last Friday’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The contract has recently traded through 133.22, 76.4% of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle. This has opened key support at 132.00, the Nov 6 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial resistance is seen at 133.48, Friday’s high. Key short-term resistance is at 134.30, the 20-day EMA.
