GBPUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.2667 High Dec 19
- RES 3: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.2576 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 1.2550 High Feb 5
- PRICE: 1.2430 @ 16:04 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 1.2333/2249 Low Feb 11 / 3
- SUP 2: 1.2161 Low Jan 17 / 20
- SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
GBPUSD found support Tuesday but for now, the pair continues to trade below its Feb 5 high. Price recently traded above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and pierced 1.2523, the Jan 27 high. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a move towards 1.2610, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support to watch has been defined at 1.2249, the Feb 3 low. Clearance of this level would instead highlight a reversal and strengthen a bearish threat.
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US: NATO Approval Of US Leadership Fragile Despite Biden's Multilateralism
A new survey from Gallup has found that the reputation of US leadership remains fragile, across NATO member countries, despite US President Joe Biden’s attempt to shore up the transatlantic partnership.
- Gallup: “In the last year of Biden’s presidency, the median approval of U.S. leadership across NATO’s 30 member countries was 35%, the lowest of his term. Median disapproval was 51%, the highest of his term.
- “Historically, these ratings were still relatively better than those under Trump or during George W. Bush’s last two years in office. However, ratings under Biden were worse than those during most of the Barack Obama administration, when approval averaged 46% and disapproval averaged 26%.”
- The survey suggests, ahead of Trump's return to the White House on January 20, that Biden's focus on multilateral foreign policy has not wholly repaired tensions within NATO, particularly regarding disagreements in policy towards the Middle East and Ukraine.
- The alliance will be tested further in the coming weeks, with Trump previewing a return to his hardline first-term rhetoric on alliance contributions, calling on NATO members to hit 5% of GDP in defence spending - more than double the current benchmark target.
Figure 1: Approval of the Leadership of the United States, NATO Member Countries
Source: Gallup
PIPELINE: Midday Corporate Bond Roundup: Issuance Picking Up
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/13 $2.5B #Standard Chartered $1B 4NC3 +105, $500M 4NC3 SOFR+124, $1B 11NC10 +143
- 01/13 $2B #Deere $1.25B 10Y +68, $750M 30Y +75
- 01/13 $1.5B #CBA 5Y SOFR+69
- 01/13 $1B *EBRD 5.5Y SOFR+42
- 01/13 $1B #Plains All American 10Y +120
- 01/13 $750M #Ares Strategic 7Y +175
STIR: BLOCK: Mar'25 SOFR Midcurve Call Tree
- 10,000 0QH5 96.00/96.12/96.25 call trees, 3.5 net (2-legs over) at 1246:42ET
