SILVER TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed

France industrial production was weaker than expected in December at -0.4% M/M (vs -0.2% consensus, 0.1% revised prior from 0.2%). This is below the 2024 M/M average of -0.1%. On an annual basis it also disappointed at -1.7% Y/Y (vs -1.2% consensus, -1.1% prior) - the weakest annual reading since May 2024.

• The decrease was driven by manufacturing production falling 0.7% M/M (vs an increase of 0.2% in November) - the lowest sequential print since May 2024. Note manufacturing production makes up 82.53% of the overall industrial production weighting.
• Within manufacturing, manufacture of transport equipment drove the weakness with a fall in production of 5.4% M/M (vs a rise of 4.0% in Nov). This is the weakest print since January 2023. The sharp fall was due to vehicle production falling 11.0% M/M (vs an increase of 6.4% in Nov) - the lowest reading since May 2021 during the covid pandemic, as well as a 2.0% M/M fall in transport equipment production.
• The manufacture of other industrial products category also fell by 1.0% M/M (from -0.1% prior), mainly due to a decline in pharmaceutical production of 7.9% M/M (after an increase of 0.9% in Nov).
• Food manufacturing production rose 2.8% M/M (vs a fall of 0.6% in Nov), manufacture of capital goods rose marginally by 0.4% M/M (vs -1.1% prior) and coking and refining rose 0.8% (vs 0.3% prior).
• The remaining 17.47% weighting is made up of the 'extractive industries' production category, which moderated the downturn with a print of 1.2% M/M (vs 0.1% in November). The second successive positive sequential print and the highest reading since July 2024.

• RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 
• RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13               
• RES 2: 0.6331 High Jan 24 and a key resistance   
• RES 1: 0.6305 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6271 @ 07:57 GMT Feb 5 
• SUP 1: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.5931 1.764 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

AUDUSD continues to recover from Monday’s low. Despite these gains, the trend structure remains bearish. Monday’s cycle low confirmed a continuation of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of the bear leg would open 0.6045, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is at 0.6305, the 50-day EMA, and 0.6331, the Jan 24. A clear breach of both levels would alter the picture.

Gilt Opening Calls, 92.91/92.97 range.