USDCAD TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4543 High Mar 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4421 @ 07:56 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
The bull cycle in USDCAD that started Feb 14 remains in play, and moving average studies reinforce this condition - they remain in a bull-mode position. The pair is trading above the Mar 6 low and a resumption of gains would signal scope for a test of the S/T bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. Clearance of this level would instead expose key short-term support at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Testing Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 0.6331 High Jan 24 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6301/09 50-day EMA / Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.6290 @ 07:54 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6000 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.5931 1.764 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD continues to trade at its recent highs. Despite the latest bounce, the trend structure remains bearish. The Feb 3 fresh cycle low confirmed a continuation of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of the bear leg would open 0.6045, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is at 0.6301 (pierced), the 50-day EMA, and 0.6331, the Jan 24 high. A clear break of both levels would be bullish.
EQUITIES: Some Attention on the Equity Open
Some attention on the European open, although a new record high might not be on the card, the Dax, Estoxx, CAC and FTSE futures are all on the edge of their respective record highs, so nothing can be ruled out for Cash Indices.
- Estox 50: +0.40%, Dax: +0.41%, CAC: +0.19%, FTSE +0.12%, SMI +0.27%
SWEDEN: Unemployment Claims Rate Looks To Have Stopped Rising
The Swedish unemployment claims rate was 7.0% for the third consecutive month in January. This supports our view that while overall labour market conditions remain subdued, it appears as though we have passed the peak pace of deterioration. This underscores expectations for the Riksbank to remain on hold in March, as its assesses the impact of past hikes on the economy.
- Total vacancies were ~100k in January, little changed from December. Relative to a year-ago, vacancies have fallen 22% Y/Y.
- 5k people were served redundancy notices in January. The 3mma of 5.1k remains below last year’s peak of 7.1k.
- January LFS data is due next Monday morning.
