EURJPY TECHS: Reverses Hard Off Resistance
- RES 4: 164.08 High Jan 24
- RES 3: 162.71 76.4% retracement of the Dec 30 - Feb 10 bear leg
- RES 2: 162.49 High Jan 29
- RES 1: 160.69/161.19 50-day EMA / High Feb 13
- PRICE: 156.63 @ 15:19 GMT Feb 20
- SUP 1: 156.32/155.61 Low Feb 20 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY has pulled back further from its recent high. For now, resistance at 160.69, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. It has been pierced, however, a clear break is required to strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for an extension towards 162.71, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a stronger reversal would refocus attention on 155.61, the Feb 10 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend.
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COMMODITIES: Crude Loses Ground, Henry Hub Falls, Gold Rises Amid Tariff Fears
- Crude futures have lost ground today as the market assesses the potential impact of the new US administration, with Trump promising to boost US production further.
- WTI Feb 25 is down by 2.3% at $76.1/bbl.
- US President Trump declared a “national energy emergency” to be able to increase domestic oil and gas production and reverse Biden’s climate change policies.
- Trump also said that he planned to impose previously threatened tariffs of as much as 25% on Mexico and Canada by Feb 1.
- Platts expects a tentative bullish effect on oil prices from these tariffs, due to increased freight costs amid expected oil trade reshuffling.
- The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish despite the latest pullback, which has allowed an overbought trend reading to unwind. Attention is on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high. Support to watch is the 20-day EMA, at $74.75.
- Meanwhile, Henry Hub has fallen as freezing weather over the long weekend failed to significantly curb gas output, while forecasts expect temperatures to rise, and thus cut heating demand, next week.
- US Natgas Feb 25 is down by 4.7% at $3.76/mmbtu.
- Spot gold has risen by a further 1.3% to $2,743/oz today, its highest level since Nov 6, driven by the possibility of tariffs on US gold imports.
- The yellow metal has pierced key short-term resistance at $2,726.2, the Dec 12 high, exposing $2,790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high.
POLITICAL RISK: Trump Set For First Oval Office Interview Wednesday Evening
Pres Trump will have his first Oval Office interview since returning to the White House on Wednesday at 9pm ET, with Fox's Sean Hannity - per Axios.
- "Trump is expected to discuss his second presidential term, recent executive orders and what to expect from the first 100 days, Fox exclusively confirmed to Axios."
USDJPY TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12
- RES 3: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
- RES 2: 158.08/87 High Jan 15 / 10 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 156.56 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 155.44 @ 16:16 GMT Jan 21
- SUP 1: 155.00/154.78 50-day EMA / Intraday low
- SUP 2: 154.32 Trendline support drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low
- SUP 3: 153.16 Low Dec 17
- SUP 4: 152.46 Low Dec 13
The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective - for now. The pair has traded through the 20-day EMA and an extension lower would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Support to watch is 155.00, the 50-day EMA, and 154.32, a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 high. A clear breach of both levels would highlight a stronger reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 158.87, the Jan 10 high.
