EURJPY TECHS: Reverses Hard Off Resistance

• Crude futures have lost ground today as the market assesses the potential impact of the new US administration, with Trump promising to boost US production further.
• WTI Feb 25 is down by 2.3% at $76.1/bbl.
• US President Trump declared a “national energy emergency” to be able to increase domestic oil and gas production and reverse Biden’s climate change policies.
• Trump also said that he planned to impose previously threatened tariffs of as much as 25% on Mexico and Canada by Feb 1.
• Platts expects a tentative bullish effect on oil prices from these tariffs, due to increased freight costs amid expected oil trade reshuffling.
• The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish despite the latest pullback, which has allowed an overbought trend reading to unwind. Attention is on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high. Support to watch is the 20-day EMA, at $74.75.
• Meanwhile, Henry Hub has fallen as freezing weather over the long weekend failed to significantly curb gas output, while forecasts expect temperatures to rise, and thus cut heating demand, next week.
• US Natgas Feb 25 is down by 4.7% at $3.76/mmbtu.
• Spot gold has risen by a further 1.3% to $2,743/oz today, its highest level since Nov 6, driven by the possibility of tariffs on US gold imports.
• The yellow metal has pierced key short-term resistance at $2,726.2, the Dec 12 high, exposing $2,790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high.

Pres Trump will have his first Oval Office interview since returning to the White House on Wednesday at 9pm ET, with Fox's Sean Hannity - per Axios.

• "Trump is expected to discuss his second presidential term, recent executive orders and what to expect from the first 100 days, Fox exclusively confirmed to Axios."

• RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12 
• RES 3: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
• RES 2: 158.08/87 High Jan 15 / 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 156.56 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 155.44 @ 16:16 GMT Jan 21
• SUP 1: 155.00/154.78 50-day EMA / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 154.32 Trendline support drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low
• SUP 3: 153.16 Low Dec 17
• SUP 4: 152.46 Low Dec 13   

The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective - for now. The pair has traded through the 20-day EMA and an extension lower would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Support to watch is 155.00, the 50-day EMA, and 154.32, a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 high. A clear breach of both levels would highlight a stronger reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 158.87, the Jan 10 high.