JGBS: Richer But Off Bests As US Tsys Weigh

JGB futures are stronger but off session highs, +11 compared to the settlement levels.

• US Tsys have been supported in today’s Asia-Pac session after news that Trump on Sunday ordered an emergency 25% tariff on all Colombian goods entering the US. Subsequently, Bloomberg reported that the US will not levy threatened tariffs on Colombia after the South American country’s government “agreed to all of President Trump’s terms".
• Currently, cash US tsys are dealing 2-4bps richer.
• Ahead of a key earnings week, US stock futures are dealing lower. The S&P 500 is down ~1.0% and the Nasdaq is down ~0.50%.
• Focus this week is the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday.
• Today, the local calendar has been light, with Coincident/Leading Index data and an Auction for Enhanced-Liquidity 5-15.5 YR due later.
• Cash JGBs are little changed across benchmarks. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.2bp lower at 1.229% versus the cycle high of 1.262%.
• Swap rates are flat to 1bp lower. Swap spreads are mixed.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see PPI Services and Machine Tool Orders data alongside BoJ Rinban Operations covering 1-5-year and 10-25-year JGBs.

TYH5 is dealing at 108-21+, +0-06+ from NY closing levels, in today’s Asia-Pac session. TYH5 hit a high of 108-24. 

• On Sunday, Trump ordered an emergency 25% tariff on all Colombian goods entering the US.
• Subsequently, Bloomberg reported that the US will not levy threatened tariffs on Colombia after reaching a deal, the White House said.  The South American country’s government “agreed to all of President Trump’s terms, including the unrestricted acceptance of all illegal aliens from Colombia returned from the United States, including on U.S. military aircraft, without limitation or delay,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. “
• Ahead of a key earnings week, US stock futures are dealing lower but currently sit slightly above session cheaps. The S&P 500 is down 0.9% and the Nasdaq is down ~0.50%.
• Cash bonds are dealing 2-4bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session, with a flattening bias, after finishing Friday mildly stronger.
• The US Treasury will auction $69 billion of two-year notes and $70 billion of five-year debt later Monday.
• Focus this week is the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday.

• Asian currencies were mixed with Korea and Indonesia out and Chinese Lunar New Year holidays about to begin.
• With headlines that the President was being charged, and the tech sector challenged by DeepSeek, the won had a tough day losing -0.453%.
• Malaysia’s Ringgitt continued its period of lower volatility relative to regional peers, rising +0.073%.
• They Yen followed suit as investors begin to embrace the idea of higher rates.  The Yen gained +0.07%.
• China’s USD/CNY fixing printed at 7.1698 versus a Bloomberg consensus of 7.2451.