CHILE: Right-Wing Parties Join Forces For Congressional Election
Apr-15 11:10
- Ahead of November’s general election, the country’s hard right parties have formed a pact to field a single list of candidates for the congressional vote, according to a report on Bloomberg. The Partido Republicano, Partido Social Cristiano and Partido Nacional Libertario said in a statement yesterday that they would join forces for the congressional election to be held on November 16.
- Presidential hopefuls Jose Antonio Kast and Johannes Kaiser, the candidates for Partido Republicano and Partido Nacional Libertario, respectively, will continue to run separate campaigns for the presidential election due to be held at the same time. A recent poll by Cadem revealed that centre-right candidate Evelyn Matthei remains the frontrunner for the presidential election with 20% of the vote, followed by Kaiser on 15% and Kast on 14%.
- On the data front, the calendar remains clear today, and for the rest of this week. Separately, the government is expected to sell CLP 450bn in notes due October today, as well as CLP 80bn of bonds due 2029 and CLP 30bn due 2035. It will also offer CPI-linked bonds due 2030 and 2055.
- Meanwhile, USDCLP closed 0.45% lower at 967.56, amid a further gain in copper prices, narrowing the gap to initial firm support at 956.29 the 50-day EMA. A break would open 942.36, the Apr 3 low.
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FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
Mar-14 21:28
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Mar-14 21:25
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
Mar-14 21:17
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
