UK: Right-Wing Reform UK Takes Outright Polling Lead For The First Time

The right-wing Reform UK has come first in a nationwide opinion poll for the first time, relegating the main opposition centre-right Conservatives into second and PM Sir Keir Starmer's centre-left Labour party in third place (Reform UK's predecessor, the Brexit Party, did lead polls for a time during the final weeks of then-PM Theresa May's tenure in 2019).

• FindOutNowUK poll, Fieldwork 22 Jan: Reform UK: 26% (+1), Conservative: 23% (-2), Labour: 22% (-2), Liberal Democrats: 12% (=), Green: 10% (=). Changes w.15 Jan.
• It should be noted that FindOutNow, a member of the British Polling Council, has consistently returned higher Reform UK support than other pollsters. Average polling in late Jan has Labour on ~26%, with the Conservatives and Reform UK ~24% support.
• Political mapping account @ElectionMapsUK projects the FindOutNow poll translating into the following seat totals if it was reflected in a general election: Reform UK: 190 (+185), Labour: 161 (-250), Conservative: 141 (+20), Liberal Democrat: 71 (-1), SNP: 46 (+37), Oth: 11 (+6), Green: 7 (+3), Plaid Cymru: 4 (=), NI (18) & Speaker (1). Changes w/ GE2024. On a combined 331 seats, Reform UK and the Conservatives would be able to form a majority coalition. 

The next general election is not due until mid-2029 at the latest. However, should Labour consistently fall behind Reform UK and/or the Conservatives, and with the prospect of a difficult by-election in a seat held by Labour in 2024, Starmer and his team may feel pressured into shifts in policy or personnel in an effort to win back support.