CROSS ASSET: Risk-On Price Action After Lutnick Points To USMCA Delay

• An initial gain for Bund on the US headline misses, but overall a mixed set of Data, Bund gained 10 ticks, but back down blow the 133.00 figure.
• Technicals are unchanged, support is still at 131.34 (Monday's gap), and resistance comes at 133.58.

JOLTS openings were lower than expected in December after an upward revised November, whilst quits rates were little changed but after an upward revised November. Both the vacancy to unemployed ratio and quits rates have broadly stabilized since June, with quits in particular on the lower side historically.

• JOLTS openings were lower than expected in Dec at 7.6m (cons 8.00m) after an upward revised 8.156m (initial 8.098m) in Nov.
• Ratio to unemployed: 1.10 after 1.15 (initial 1.14). It has averaged 1.1 since June, recently seeing a low of 1.07 in September. The ratio on the month was biased higher by the already known sharp -235k drop in unemployment back in Dec.
• It clearly remains low by recent standards, below the 1.19 seen in 2019 although is still elevated vs pre-pandemic years such as the 1.00 averaged in 2017-18.
• Quits rate at 2.00% after an upward revised 1.97% (initial 1.92). Just like the vacancy to unemployed ratio has stabilized since June, the quits rate has averaged 2.0% over that period.
• Its most recent high was 2.06% back in Oct after a rare rounded increase but these are still low levels historically, having averaged 2.33 in 2019 and 2.20 in 2017-18.
• The private quits rate sees a similar trend, at 2.21% after 2.17% (initial 2.12%).

• Treasuries gap higher after lower than expected JOLTS job openings - more than offsetting the up-revision to prior read.
• The Mar'25 10Y contract tapped 109-01.5 high, below initial technical resistance at 109-10/15+ (50-day EMA / High Feb 3), trades 108-30 last (-.5).
• Cross asset update, Greenback declines (BBDXY -7.0 at 1302.78), Stocks climbing (SPX Eminis +24.25 at 6046.75), Gold at new highs over 2842.0.