IRAN: Rprt-Source: Indirect Talks w/US Poss In 2/3 Wks, Direct Talks If Progress

Attention turns to the US Cash open, the Emini (ESH5) and the January 2025 low of 5809.00 just held, printed a 5812.00 low so far today, and finding some underlying bids ahead of the Open.

Cash SPX sees the January low standing at 5773.31, but the open will be some way short of that initial level, and Yesterday's low of 5810.91.

• Calls: SPX: 5,815.0 (-0.6%); DJIA: 43,020 (-0.4%/-171pts); NDX: 20,306.7 (-0.6%).

• 6,000 FVM5 108-10, sell through 108-10.25 post time bid at 0915:24ET, DV01 $246,000. The 5Y contract trades 108-11.25 last (+8.5)

A fresh Bundesbank proposal for a debt brake tweak (outlined in a previous bullet) adds weight to Bunds in recent trade.

• Bund futures through initial support at 132.13, with next meaningful support seen at 131.72. Lows of 131.94 printed before a recovery to ~132.10.
• Fresh steepening on the curve results in cycle highs for both 2s10s and 5s30s at 47.5bp and 66.0bp, respectively.
• Swap spreads move lower, but long end ASWs vs. 3-month Euribor fail to breach cycle lows.
• Expect debt brake negotiations to be drawn out over the coming months, given different preferences/ideals across the political spectrum and shift in Bundestag composition in late March.
• Special funds remain the first port of call for near-term German fiscal support, although seemingly need to be passed before the new Bundestag sits (which is doable, but clearly time constrained).