SECURITY: Rubio And Witkoff To Hold Ukraine Talks With European Counterparts

Apr-16 12:40

The US State Department confirmed that Secretary of State Marco Rubio and President Donald Trump's Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff will travel to Paris today for Ukraine meetings with European counterparts. 

  • Statement: "[Rubio] and [Witkoff] will travel to Paris, France, April 16-18 for talks with European counterparts to advance President Trump’s goal to end the Russia-Ukraine war and stop the bloodshed. While in Paris, he will also discuss ways to advance shared interests in the region."
  • The meeting appears to acknowledge that Trump's attempt to unilaterally negotiate ceasefire terms with Kyiv and Moscow has hit a wall. The Paris meeting, the first time Europe has been formally included in Washington's ceasefire process, comes after NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte declared "unwavering" support for Ukraine during a surprise visit to Odesa yesterday and Ukrainian, British, French and Turkish representatives met in Turkey to discuss Black Sea security - two signs that Ukraine's allies intend to maintain military and diplomatic support for Kyiv.
  • Bloomberg reported today that the US "appears to have tempered its demands for the payback of aid by Ukraine", noting the administration "has reduced its estimate for the assistance the US provided to Kyiv ... from $300 billion to about $100 billion... closer to Ukraine’s own estimate of more than $90 billion."
  • Sky News reports "Kyiv and Washington have made "substantial progress" in talks to sign a minerals deal, noting that Ukraine's first deputy prime minister said that the deal "was well on the way to being signed."

Historical bullets

CANADA DATA: Global Investors Buy Most Canada Bonds In Nearly Five Years

Mar-17 12:39
  • Global investors bought net CAD33.5b of Canada bonds in Jan, most since Apr 2020, Statistics Canada says Monday.
  • That includes a record CAD10.8b of provincial govt bonds.
  • More than half of total bond purchases were for USD-denominated debt.
  • Total net foreign purchases of Canada securities was CAD7.9b.
  • "Non-resident investors reduced their exposure to Canadian shares by $6.6 billion in January, as a result of retirements related to merger and acquisition activities as well as sales on secondary markets," StatsCan said. "They decreased their exposure to Canadian money market instruments by $18.9 billion, the largest divestment since February 2024."
  • Canadians divested CAD3.2b of foreign securities, led by U.S. equities.

US TSYS: Post-Retail Sales, Empire Manufacturing React

Mar-17 12:36
  • Fast two-way trade as Treasury futures initially extended highs - then reverse course after lower than expected Retail Sales and down-revision to prior - while ex-auto/gas and the Control Group comes out steady to higher than expected; sharp decline in Empire Manufacturing.
  • The Mar'25 10Y currently trades 110-17.5 (-3) vs. 110-17 low/110-27.5 high - still inside initial technical levels: resistance above at 111-25 (Mar 11 high), support below at 110-12.5/110-00 (Low Mar 6 & 13 / High Feb 7).
  • Tsy 10Y yield 4.3043% last, curves flattening: 2s10s -3.715 at 25.580, 5s30s -2.512 at 50.570.

MNI:US FEB RETAIL SALES +0.2%; EX-MOTOR VEH +0.3%

Mar-17 12:30
  • MNI:US FEB RETAIL SALES +0.2%; EX-MOTOR VEH +0.3%
  • US JAN RETAIL SALES REVISED -1.2%; EX-MV -0.6%
  • US FEB RET SALES EX GAS & MTR VEH & PARTS DEALERS +0.5% V JAN -0.8%
  • US FEB RET SALES EX MTR VEH & PARTS DEALERS +0.3% V US FEB -0.6%
  • US FEB RET SALES EX AUTO, BLDG MATL & GAS +0.5% V JAN -0.8%
  • US FEB RETAIL SALES CONTROL GROUP +1.0% V JAN -1.0%