ENERGY: Russia/U.S. Peace Deal Contact on Wednesday

BDS2 (17th Apr) 5p, bought for 0.08 and 0.09 in ~29.4k.

• Treasuries sit mildly twist steeper from Friday’s close, giving a sense of downplaying Trump’s weekend steel and aluminum tariffs announcement.
• That being said, there could still be sensitivity to upcoming details on those tariffs. Today’s docket meanwhile is particularly light although NY Fed inflation expectations take greater prominence than usual considering the partisanship clouding the U.Mich readings.
• Cash yields range from 0.5bp lower (front-end/belly) to 1.5bp higher (30s).
• 2s10s sits at 21.6bp (+0.8bp) vs overnight lows of 19bp but it’s still one of the lowest since mid-to-late December.
• TYH5 has kept to narrow ranges, currently at 109-05+ (-02) on modest cumulative volumes of 305k.
• The short-term trend needle points north, with resistance seen at 110-00 (Feb 7 high, snap reaction to NFP print) before 110-14 (Dec 14 high). To the downside, support at 108-20+ (Feb 4 low).  
• Data: NY Fed inflation expectations Jan (1100ET)
• Bill issuance: US Tsy $84B 13W & $72B 26W Bill auctions (1130ET)

• RES 4: 110-25   High Dec 12
• RES 3: 110-19   76.4% retracement of the Dec 6  - Jan 13 bear leg    
• RES 2: 110-14   High Dec 14
• RES 1: 110-00   High Feb 7
• PRICE:‌‌ 109-05 @ 11:27 GMT Feb 10
• SUP 1: 108-20+ Low Feb 4   
• SUP 2: 108-06/107-06 Low Jan 23 / 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 107-04   Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 106-11   2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing  

A bull phase in Treasury futures remains in play and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA of 109-10+. This highlights potential for a stronger reversal and sights are on a climb above the 110-00 handle. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is unchanged at 108-20+, the Feb 4 low. Clearance of it would signal a reversal and the end of the corrective cycle.