FINANCIALS: Sabadell - Q4 Results Headlines

Latest block trades lodged at 07:20:39 London/02:20:39 NY:

• FVH5 10,400 lots blocked at 106-01.75, looks like a seller.
• USH5 3,298 lots blocked at 112-08, looks like a buyer.
• Points to a flattener, DV01 over $400K.
• 5s20s curve ~0.5bp flatter since the block, curve still set for steepest close since October 25.

Fig. 1: U.S. 5-/20-Year Yield Curve (bp)

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

• RES 4: 6194.19 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing    
• RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance   
• RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16  
• RES 1: 6068.25/6107.50 High Jan 6 / High Dec 26         
• PRICE: 5957.75 @ 07:24 GMT Jan 8 
• SUP 1: 5911.25/5866.00 Low Jan 3 / Dec 20       
• SUP 2: 5811.65 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg  
• SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4 
• SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg

A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present despite the most recent move higher. The reversal lower from the Dec 26 high, highlights the end of the Dec 20 - 26 correction. Attention is on 5866.00, Dec 20 low and a key S/T support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is 6107.50, Dec 26 high. A breach of this hurdle would highlight a bull reversal and open key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.

Light dovish moves in EUR STIRs fade as the recovery from Tuesday/Asia lows in Bunds moderates, with the bulk of the late ‘24/early ’25 hawkish repricing holding.

• ECB-dated OIS flat on the day, showing ~102.5bp of cuts through year-end, with the next 25bp move almost fully discounted come the end of this month’s decision.
• Euribor futures -0.5 to +1.5. Only ERH5 has pierced its November low in recent sessions.
• Comments from ECB’s Villeroy are due this evening, with lower tier Eurozone data (confidence metrics and PPI) scheduled this morning.
• That will leave much of the focus on the long end and U.S. data (ADP employment and weekly jobless claims).