OIL: Safety Inspections of Russian Vessels Through Danish Straits
Feb-05 13:47
Denmark is set to increase inspections of ships transporting Russian oil through the Danish Straits, according to the Danish Maritime Authority cited by Bloomberg.
- The increased scrutiny of Russia’s shadow fleet tankers is to ensure ships comply with regulations to protect the environment and maritime safety.
- The Danish Maritime Authority will start conducting Port State Control on ships anchored outside Skagen that “cannot be considered in innocent passage,” according to a statement.
- Accidents involving “high risk profile” vessels could have “particularly severe consequences for safety, health and the environment.”
- Late last year the UK began challenging vessels through the English Channel over their insurance accreditation.
- Russia’s Transportation Ministry started assessing around 500 Russian companies operating sea and river tankers following a major fuel-oil spill in December, the authority said via Telegram. The assessment is set to be finished by the start of the spring 2025 navigation season.
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STIR: German Inflation Data Counters Dovish U.S. Tariff Report
Jan-06 13:44
Firmer-than-expected German CPI data keeps ECB-dated OIS pinned to pricing ~100bp of cuts through ’25, 15-20bp less dovish than the levels that prevailed in the run up to the Christmas break.
- Hawkish inflation data counters most of the impact of the dovish source reports that pointed to a potential moderation in incoming U.S. President Trump's tariff policies (when compared to the hard line adopted during his election campaign).
- A 25bp cut at this month’s ECB meeting is still near enough fully discounted and remains the base case for the sell-side.
- Euribor futures 3.0-5.5 lower, at/just off session lows.
- Early ’25 has seen ERZ5 break the uptrend line drawn off the mid-June lows. Next downside target is 8.0 below prevailing levels, at the November low (97.8550).
ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp) |
Jan-25 | 2.670 | -24.9 |
Mar-25 | 2.400 | -51.9 |
Apr-25 | 2.212 | -70.7 |
Jun-25 | 2.087 | -83.2 |
Jul-25 | 2.041 | -87.8 |
Sep-25 | 1.976 | -94.3 |
Oct-25 | 1.945 | -97.4 |
Dec-25 | 1.926 | -99.3 |
Fig. 1: Euribor '25 Futures (ERZ5)
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
USD: More Broader base lows for the Dollar
Jan-06 13:38
- The Dollar takes another leg lower, a continuation since the Trump Washington Post story on Tariffs earlier, testing broader base lows against the Yen, GBP, EUR, CZK, CNY, AUD, NOK, and NZD.
- AUD is the best performer now in G10, up 1.32% and testing the 0.6300 handle, this area also represent levels AUDUSD was trading at the pre last Hawkish FOMC on the 18th December.
- Small immediate resistance is seen at 0.6308.
STIR: BLOCK: Sep'25 SOFR Ratio Call Skew Package
Jan-06 13:32
- 5,000 SFRU5 95.62/95.81 put spds 7.0 vs. 10,000 96.75/97.12 call spds, 4.5, 2.0 net package at 0823:06ET
