OIL: Sanctions Forcing More Russia/Iran Barrels onto the Water
Feb-12 09:41
Floating Russian and Iranian barrels have hit multi-month highs on harsher U.S. sanctions as buyers fear pulling in cargoes.
- A ban last month by China's Shandong Port Group on sanctioned tankers from calling at its ports in the eastern province has also made offloading cargoes difficult.
- Kpler places Iranian oil in floating storage at more than 25mn bbls, the highest in more than a year, with about 80% of the cargoes floating off the waters of Singapore and Malaysia.
- Russian crude-on-water hit a two-month high of 88 million barrels on January 27, 24% higher than on January 10 when the sanctions were announced according to Kpler.
- About 6.3 million barrels of Pacific crude from Russia’s Sakhalin Island project is being held on vessels that have been stationary for at least a week Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.
- Several vessels previously engaged in moving Iranian oil are switching to Russian trade recently Kpler has seen.
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USD: The EUR and the Pound are breaking through their support
Jan-13 09:34
- Watch the EUR and the Pound, both falling through new lows, but the Dollar is seeing a broader bid, Risk Off tone and Elevated Yield have been supportive of the Greenback, and also a continutaion since Friday's data.
- EURUSD is through the initial 1.0201 61.8% of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg, further momentum opens to 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- Cable sees 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing next.
CROSS ASSET: Bid In Energy Prices Factors Into Bond Weakness
Jan-13 09:31
WTI & Brent have registered the highest levels seen since August, factoring into the weakness in core global FI markets.
- Next resistance of note in WTI located at $79.59, while resistance in Brent is seen at $83.79.
- Our commodities team continues to point to the deepening of U.S. sanctions against Russia as the major bullish factor for crude oil, although Platts have noted that sanctioned barrels still seem to find a way to market.
- Demand for Middle East crude is also noted, as judged by benchmark premiums paid.
- The bid in European natural gas prices will also be having a hawkish impact on EUR STIRs, factoring into EGB weakness.
US: SFR Put Spread seller
Jan-13 09:24
SFRU5 95.62/95.50ps sold at 3.5 in 9k.
