RATINGS: S&P Move EFSF To Outlook Negative, Following Same For France

• RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12  
• RES 3: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
• RES 2: 158.08/87 High Jan 15 / 10 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 156.75 High Jan 23       
• PRICE: 155.46 @ 07:14 GMT Feb 3
• SUP 1: 153.72/34 Low Jan 27 / Low Dec 18  
• SUP 2: 152.55 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg
• SUP 3: 151.81 Low Dec 12   
• SUP 4: 151.06 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg   

The primary trend condition in USDJPY is bullish. However, the Jan 27 move down highlights a stronger bear threat. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA and a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low. A resumption of weakness would open 152.55, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is at 156.75, the Jan 23 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development.

Sovereign rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include:

• Fitch affirmed Turkey at BB-; Stable Outlook
• S&P affirmed Germany at AAA; Outlook Stable 

• RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 0.8421 High Jan 27  
• RES 2: 0.8381 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 0.8363 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 0.8335 @ 07:09 GMT Feb 3 
• SUP 1: 0.8325 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support  
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range   
• SUP 4: 0.8000 Round number support 

EURGBP is trading in a volatile manner. The bear cycle that started Jan 20 remains in play and today’s price activity has strengthened - for now - a bearish threat. A resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards the first key support at 0.8223, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, the 20-day EMA is seen as a key short-term resistance - at 0.8381. A breach of the EMA would highlight a bullish development.