SOUTH AFRICA: SARB Stands Pat On Rates, S. Africa Observes Public Holiday

• RES 4: 107.045 High Feb 3 and a reversal trigger  
• RES 3: 106.975 High Feb 10     
• RES 2: 106.855 High Feb 12 and a key near-term resistance  
• RES 1: 106.789 20-day EMA          
• PRICE: 106.710 @ 07:22 GMT Feb 19   
• SUP 1: 106.668 61.8% retracement of the Jan 15 - Feb 3 bull leg                 
• SUP 2: 106.600 Low Jan 31
• SUP 3: 106.515 Low Jan 30 
• SUP 4: 106.435 Low Jan 15 and key support  

A bull cycle that began Jan 15 in Schatz futures remains in play, and the pullback from the early February highs appears corrective - for now. However, the contract maintains a softer short-term tone and this highlights potential for a deeper retracement. A continuation lower would open 106.600 next, the Jan 31 low. For bulls, initial firm resistance to watch is 106.855, the Feb 12 high. A break would highlight an early bullish reversal signal.

• RES 4: 118.258 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg         
• RES 3: 117.980 High Feb 3 / 5 and a reversal trigger    
• RES 2: 117.600 High Feb 13 and a key short-term resistance    
• RES 1: 117.418 20-day EMA                            
• PRICE: 117.130 @ 07:21 GMT Feb 19
• SUP 1: 117.048 Trendline drawn from Jan 15 low                 
• SUP 2: 116.700 Low Jan 30 
• SUP 3: 116.550 Low Jan 24  
• SUP 4: 116.280 Low Jan 14 / 15 and  key support       

Bobl futures remain in a short-term corrective cycle and the contract remains close to recent lows. Price has recently traded through support at the 20-day EMA - at 117.430. The extension lower has exposed a trendline support drawn from the Jan 15 low, at 117.048. Clearance of the trendline would strengthen a bearish threat and open 116.700, the Jan 30 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 117.600, the Feb 13 high.

• RES 4: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg           
• RES 3: 133.71 High Feb 5 and a reversal trigger  
• RES 2: 132.97 High Feb 13 and a key near-term resistance 
• RES 1: 132.59 20-day EMA                 
• PRICE: 131.82 @ 07:20 GMT Feb 19 
• SUP 1: 131.59 61.8% retracement of the Jan 14 - Feb 5 bull leg     
• SUP 2: 131.00 Low Jan 24 and a key short-term support             
• SUP 3: 130.28 Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 130.11 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing    

Bund futures are trading lower again, as the contract extends the reversal that started Feb 5. Price is through an important short-term support at 132.12, a trendline drawn from the Jan 15 low. The breach strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension towards 131.59 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Below 131.59, lies 131.00, the Jan 25 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 132.97, the Feb 13 high.