SOUTH KOREA: Second Motion To Impeach Yoon Reported To National Assembly
In an expected turn of events, Yonhap News Agency reports that a second motion to impeach President Yoon Suk-yeol over his short-lived martial law declaration was reported to the National Assembly, with other outlets suggesting that a sufficient number of lawmakers from the ruling People Power Party (PPP) are now planning to support the motion.
- According to Yonhap, "the second motion includes allegations that martial law troops and police attempted to arrest lawmakers under the leadership of the president," but does not include allegations against first lady Kim Keon-hee.
- The impeachment vote will likely be held tomorrow at 5pm local time. Munwha Ilbo reported that more than eight PPP MPs are planning to vote in favour, which is exactly the number the opposition was short of to initiate impeachment proceedings.
- The latest opinion poll by Gallup Korea showed that Yoon's approval rating sank to a record low of 11%, with 85% of respondents holding negative views on his presidency.
- Spot USD/KRW last trades +2.10 fig. at 1,433.10, operating close to recent cyclical highs (1,444.65).
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GOLD TECHS: Corrective Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: $2814.7- 3.618 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $2689.5/2750.0 - 20-day EMA / High Nov 5
- RES 1: $2644.4 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $2604.5 @ 07:18 GMT Nov 13
- SUP 1: $2584.9 - Low Sep 20
- SUP 2: $2547.0 - Low Sep18
- SUP 3: $2531.8 - High Aug 20
- SUP 4: $2492.0 - Low Sep 2
The trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. However, recent weakness has resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA, and Tuesday’s sell-off delivered a print below the 50-day EMA, at $2644.4. The breach signals scope for a deeper retracement towards $2547.0 the Sep 18 low. Firm resistance is seen at $2689.5, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this average is required to signal a reversal.
BUNDS: Heavy European supply, US 10yr Yield and CPI are at the forefront
- The German Bund remains under pressure going into the Cash open, the move lower in US Tnotes (TYZ4) has helped some of the moves Yesterday, as well as a good rejection from Investors at the 2.50% mark Yesterday, on paying interest, parking some cash.
- Despite the futures contract printing a 130.58 low in November, the 2.30%/2.50% range in Yield has provided support and resistance so far this Month.
- While US TYZ4 is just off its low going into the European session, early focus should be on how price action develops at these levels.
- In outright futures the November low stands at 109.07, but the street will be keeping a close eye at the 4.50% level in Yield, this Equates to 108.28+ today.
- There's no real Tier 1 data out of Europe, Portugal CPI will be final reading, the main focus is on the US CPI today.
- SUPPLY: Heavy supply will be the early focus in Europe. UK £4bn 2028 (Equates to 11.8k Gilt) could somewhat weigh, Italy €4bn 2027 (equates to 48k Short 2yr BTP), Italy 2032, 2039 (equates combined 27.3k BTP) will weigh.
- Germany €4bn Bund (equates to 34k Bund) could weigh. Portugal 10s, 20s, small should have a more limited impact.
- SPEAKERS: BoE Mann, Fed Kaskari, Williams, Logan, Musalem, Schmid.
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 169.20 High Jul 24
- RES 3: 168.01 High Jul 26
- RES 2: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 1: 165.43/166.69 High Nov 8 / High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 164.46 @ 07:08 GMT Nov 13
- SUP 1: 163.41/21 50-day EMA / Low Nov 8
- SUP 2: 161.85/161.01 Low Oct 17 / Low Oct 4
- SUP 3: 158.11 Low Sep 30
- SUP 4: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / 16
A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The 50-day EMA lies at 163.41. It has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 161.85, the Oct 17 low. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and recent gains suggest scope for a climb towards 167.40, a Fibonacci retracement point.
