US FISCAL: Senate Budget Proposal May Lower Probability Of Triggering X-Date

Plenty of activity in Washington today outside of the tariff announcement in an hour. Fox News is reporting that the Senate budget proposal to be unveiled by Sen Lindsey Graham today would allow the debt limit increase to be voted on separately from the main bill if necessary, should the "x-date" be looming before there's agreement on the broader fiscal package (that was looking increasingly likely given that there will be a lot of disagreement among Republicans about the details, especially the spending cuts).

• The proposed $5T debt limit increase is higher than the House-passed budget's $4T - giving Treasury more room to manoever if implemented - but is in line with previous reporting.
• The package would also make the Trump tax cuts permanent (using the "current policy" baseline) without any need to consult the Senate parliamentarian.
• Previously it had been reported that Senate Republicans wanted to hold a vote by Saturday.
• Overall this Republican leadership appears confidence that they have the votes to pass this resolution, which looks to both lower risks of a debt default, while delivering large tax cuts along the more aggressive "current policy" baseline. Though it still needs to go back and forth with the House in the reconciliation process, which should take some time.
• Fox: "The Senate amendment includes raising the debt ceiling in the key budget process by no more than $5 trillion. This has been a request of Trump since before he took office the second time.... Republicans who argued to include the debt ceiling in reconciliation said it would prevent Democrats from having leverage down the road, when a vote to raise it would need 60 votes, forcing them to lobby Democrats for support.... The amendment also stipulates that the provision to raise the debt ceiling can be voted on separate from the rest of the resolution, in the case that the "X Date," when the Treasury is unable to meet its financial obligations without intervention, is set to arrive sooner than Republicans are prepared to vote on the entire reconciliation package."