US: SFR put fly with put ladder

The Norwegian goods trade balance widened to NOK83.2bln in December, up from NOK74.1bln in November. For 2024 overall, the trade surplus was NOK745bln, 13% below 2023’s level. Excluding offshore trade, Norway ran a deficit of NOK338bln (11% larger than in 2023).

• Total exports were down 4% Y/Y at NOK1,805bln, while imports rose 3.6% Y/Y to NOK1,061bln. The weak NOK likely pushed import prices (and therefore total import values) higher through the year.
• Natural gas exports were NOK559bln in 2024, 11% lower than in 2023. However, natural gas exports still exceeded those of crude oil (which totalled NOK529bln).
• The end of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal and recent cold weather in Europe have supported natural gas prices in January. These developments will have a positive impact on Norwegian gas export values from a price and volume (i.e. substitution) perspective.
• Fish exports were NOK168bln, a new record high.

FX Exchange traded Weekly Option, expiry Friday:

• EURUSD 1.0500c, sold at 0.00035 in 1.2k.

• RES 4: 160.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 3: 159.45 High Jul 12
• RES 2: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing  
• RES 1: 158.87 High Jan 10  
• PRICE: 156.32 @ 14:46 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 155.95 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 154.71 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 154.44 Low Dec 19
• SUP 4: 153.16 Low Dec 17  

The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest move lower is considered corrective. The pair has traded through the 20-day EMA and an extension lower would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch is 154.71, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of gains  and a breach of 158.87, the Jan 10 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 159.45, the Jul 12 ‘24 high.