OIL: Shandong Teapot Inventory Rate Rises on Week: OilChem

• Treasuries have pushed to fresh session lows in recent trade, with not much by way of headlines but WTI futures continuing to push higher and today’s solid slate for corporate issuance possibly also weighing.
• The initial move to fresh lows also coincided with the first round of today’s heavy bill issuance, which included the small bid-to-cover for a 26-week since Mar 202.
• 13-week bill auction: Today saw 2.81x, vs 3.01x (Feb 10), 2.65x (Feb 3) and 3.18x (Jan 27).
• 26-week bill auction: Today saw 2.63x vs 2.86x (Feb 10), 3.04x (Feb 3) and 2.92x (Jan 27).
• Cash yields are now 3.2-5.8bp higher on the day, with 5-10Y tenors leading increases from a combination of real yields (+3.8bp for 10Y) and breakevens (+1.6bp for 10Y).
• These moves are only helping reverse the dovish impact from a particularly soft retail sales report on Friday.
• TYH5 has seen session lows of 108-29 (-13), still off Friday’s pre-retail sales low of 108-26 and support not seen until 108-04 (Feb 12 low) before 108-00 (Jan 16 low).
• Ahead, round two of post-holiday bill issuance with $80bn 6-wk bills & $48bn 52-wk bills at 1300ET, along with outgoing Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr on AI and financial stability (text + Q&A).
• It’s followed after the close by President Trump and Musk in a Fox News interview at 2100ET. The sit-down with Sean Hannity is set to focus on the Musk-led DOGE and Trump's first 100 days in office.

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Germany goes into a federal election on 23 February amid an upheaval in the country’s political landscape. Deep splits have emerged between major parties concerning the policies required to revive Germany’s flagging economy – and crucially the possibility of reform to the constitutional ‘debt brake’ – as well as how to deal with rising public anger over high levels of immigration and terrorist attacks. These domestic concerns do not exist in a vacuum and come during one of the most turbulent periods for regional and global geopolitics in years. 

This Election Preview contains background information on how the election system works, the parties involved, a chartpack of opinion polling, outlooks for the election from financial and energy markets, and a round-up of sell-side analyst views. 

For full article PDF follow link below:

MNIPOLITICALRISK-GermanyElectionPreview.pdf

• US TSY TO SELL $80.000 BLN 8W BILL FEB 20, SETTLE FEB 25