STIR: Short Cover Most Prominent In Front End Of SOFR Futures On Monday
OI data points to net short cover dominating in most SOFR futures contracts through SFRU7 on Monday, with a mix of net short setting and long cover then seen through from SFRZ7 through the blues.
| 21-Apr-25 | 17-Apr-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRH5 | 1,116,798 | 1,126,370 | -9,572 | Whites | -28,882 |
SFRM5 | 1,226,691 | 1,244,933 | -18,242 | Reds | -5,766 |
SFRU5 | 968,963 | 964,124 | +4,839 | Greens | +3,143 |
SFRZ5 | 1,089,563 | 1,095,470 | -5,907 | Blues | -222 |
SFRH6 | 673,678 | 672,912 | +766 |
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SFRM6 | 678,426 | 677,790 | +636 |
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SFRU6 | 663,405 | 666,771 | -3,366 |
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SFRZ6 | 851,678 | 855,480 | -3,802 |
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SFRH7 | 610,084 | 611,642 | -1,558 |
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SFRM7 | 556,858 | 551,133 | +5,725 |
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SFRU7 | 365,045 | 362,132 | +2,913 |
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SFRZ7 | 395,469 | 399,406 | -3,937 |
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SFRH8 | 252,277 | 252,810 | -533 |
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SFRM8 | 179,508 | 181,140 | -1,632 |
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SFRU8 | 134,403 | 135,428 | -1,025 |
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SFRZ8 | 153,407 | 150,439 | +2,968 |
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CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
- CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
- CARNEY EXPECTED TO SEEK ELECTION
US TSYS: Available "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up Slightly From Lows
Treasury has $163B of "extraordinary measures" remaining for authorities to use to fend off hitting the debt limit as of March 19, per the latest release of Treasury data. That's up from $86B on Mar 17 and a low of $34B on Feb 24.
- That's a little under half of the $377B in measures available to Treasury, with most of the amount remaining ($143B) coming from the so-called "G Fund".
- This headroom is in addition to $416B in cash left in the TGA, at last count.
- We haven't seen any changes recently to "x-dates" by when Treasury will run out of cash until the debt limit is lifted.
- Consensus still centers around late July/early August, but much will depend on April's major mid-month tax take. Treasury wrote to Congress last week that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4345 @ 16:27 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD is trading closer to its recent lows. The bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains intact and moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Note that the latest pullback has exposed a near-term key support at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. Clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. The bull trigger is 1.4543, the Mar 4 high.
