AMERICAS OIL: Signs of Supply Limitations in US Market Amid Reverse Arbitrage

MNI's Political Risk team has published its Week Ahead article looking at some of the major political risk events taking place around the world over the coming seven days. Includes info on the Trump inauguration in the US, which is set to be followed by a flurry of new executive orders. Meanwhile, global political and business leaders meet in Davos for the annual World Economic Forum gathering. 

Full article PDF attached below:

MNIPOLITICALRISK-WeekAhead20-26Jan.pdf

• GoC yields are modestly higher within the first hour of trading, ranging from 0-2bps with increases led by the long-end.
• USDCAD meanwhile is at 1.4460 off fresh highs overnight of 1.4486. Next resistance is seen at 1.4508 (Fibo projection of Oct 17 – Nov 1-6 price swing). See our 0634ET post on the run higher in USDCAD vols.
• Eyes are firmly on US President-elect Trump’s swearing in ceremony, with Trudeau’s proroguing of parliament until Mar 24 hindering a Canadian response. Most regional premiers have backed a response to potential US tariffs although there was a notable holdout from Alberta’s Smith last week.
• Former FM Freeland kicked off her campaign for Liberal leader on Sunday, promising “dollar-for-dollar” tariff retaliation. Mark Carney does however remain in pole position for the leadership race, with Polymarket showing him at 66%, but even then Poilievre’s Conservatives are strong favourites for the next election (early or otherwise). However, Poilievre is yet to detail potential responses to tariffs.
• In the interim, the BoC’s BOS and CSCE reports for Q4 shouldn’t be overlooked at 1030ET today. With inflation expectations components having made good normalization progress in recent quarters, expect increased attention on indicators that give better implications for whether excess supply has increased further. It’s followed tomorrow by Canadian CPI for December, with OIS pointing to almost 20bp of cuts priced for the Jan 29 decision.   

OI data points to a mix of long setting and short cover in Euribor futures on Friday. Indicative short cover was most prevalent in the greens.