ECB: Simkus Doesn't Speculate On April Cut, But Direction Of Travel Still Clear
Headlines crossing from ECB's Simkus (via BBG)
- *ECB'S SIMKUS: IRRATIONAL TO COMMIT ON FUTURE RATE DECISIONS"...*ECB'S SIMKUS: WILL SEE IN APRIL IF WE CUT OR PAUSE
- "*ECB'S SIMKUS: DIRECTION OF TRAVEL HASN'T CHANGED"
These are broadly consistent with Simkus' comments on Feb 20: "We are not able to be precise about the pace and the path of rate cuts, but it's clear that we are moving interest rates downwards, and I don't see any good reason not to do another rate cut in March. We'll see about April and June. But overall, the direction of travel is clear, and for me, the next move is clear"
Back then, Simkus also said that he "generally agrees" with market expectations for three cuts between now (i..e prior to the March decision) and the end of 2025. Market pricing still largely reflects this, with OIS pricing 46bps of easing through year-end.
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FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Of note:
EURUSD 2.78bn at 1.0290/1.0325.
USDJPY 1.14bn at 153.00.
USDCAD 1.16bn at 1.4425 (a little far).
EURUSD 1.15bn at 1.0300 (tue).
EURUSD 1.19bn at 1.0300 (wed).
AUDUSD 1.04bn at 0.6200 (wed).
USDJPY 2.25bn at 152.00 (fri).
AUDUSD 1.07bn at 0.6200 (fri).
USDCNY 2.16bn at 7.3000 (fri).
- EURUSD: 1.0250 (2.01bn), 1.0260 (738mln), 1.0275 (615mln), 1.0290 (364mln), 1.0300 (864mln), 1.0315 (557mln), 1.0320 (471mln), 1.0325 (520mln), 1.0350 (380mln), 1.0375 (526mln), 1.0400 (1.31bn).
- USDJPY: 151.75 (551mln), 152.75 (335mln), 153.00 (1.14bn).
- USDCAD: 1.4370 (318mln), 1.4400 (696mln), 1.4425 (1.16bn).
GILTS: Hargreaves Lansdown Highlight Multi-Year Record Activity In January
Hargreaves Lansdown highlight increased gilt trading activity amongst their clients in January.
- When compared to January 2024, they note that “the number of trades and amount of assets invested this January were 75% higher. Both figures were much higher than December 2024 too, with the number of trades seeing a 93% increase.”
- The January figures are the highest levels they have witnessed since ’21, with the early January spike higher in yields and maturity of the 0.25% 31 January 2025 gilt cited as the key drivers of activity.
- A reminder that the 0.25% 31 January 2025 gilt was particularly attractive to retail investors, given its low coupon status and UK tax laws.
- Hargreaves Lansdown suggest that “with investors aware that the gilt was going to mature very soon, it’s likely many sold ahead of maturity and reinvested in other gilts, given the spike in yields.”
- Looking forwards, they expect February to be “another popular month for gilt purchases, largely linked to the maturity of the gilt on 31 January - many clients will have received their maturity payment last week and given continued elevated yields, reinvesting into other gilts may be attractive.”
- Note that we do not have Hargreaves Lansdown’s gilt trading volume to hand, but thought the above may be of interest given wider discussions surrounding the maturity of the 0.25% 31 January 2025 gilt and retail investor activity.
GILTS: Flat Start, Issuance & BoE Speak Due Tuesday, Little Scheduled Today
A flat start for gilts, futures last +3 at 93.23 (93.13-32 range).
- The short-term bullish cycle in the contract extended last week, initial support and resistance located at 92.50 & 94.35, respectively.
- Yields 0.5-1bp higher across the curve.
- 2s10s and 5s30s ~2.5bp and ~5bp off respective ‘25 closing highs.
- Goldman Sachs note that “gilts have continued to rally since the sharp sell-off in early January and are the best performer of the last few weeks. The extent of rally may mean gilts take a breather in the short run; however, we continue to expect a decline in Gilt risk premium over the coming year, and continue to recommend 10s30s flatteners.”
- Little of note on the UK calendar today, with comments from BoE Governor Bailey & MPC member Mann (after her dovish pivot) eyed on Tuesday.
- This week’s DMO issuance comes via a syndication of the new 4.50% Mar-35 gilt (we expect this to price tomorrow, pencilling in a size of GBP8.5-10.0bln) and GBP1bln of the 0.625% Mar-45 I/L line (Wednesday).
