TURKEY: Simsek, Karahan Meet US Treasury Secretary in Washington
- Disinflation continues but risks are alive, CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan said in a presentation at Washington. He noted that goods inflation is low but will be affected by FX pass-through, while falling commodity prices will offset some of the exchange rate effects.
- Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek and Karahan met with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in a meeting focused on advancing Turkey-US relations, the Turkish Treasury said. "We touched on cooperation opportunities in the fields of investment and trade, transportation and energy, and emphasized the importance of lifting current restrictions to ensure cooperation in the defence industry," the statement said.
- Dunya note that since the beginning of the week, banks have increased rates by 2-3 points in deposits, 2-3 points in consumer loans and 4-5 points in commercial loans. Rates on 32-day lira deposits rose to 50% from 47%, they add.
- Turkey's manufacturing confidence fell to 103.2 in April from 104.1, a slight moderation from the 10-month high recorded in March. Adjusted manufacturing confidence fell to 100.8 from 103.2, while capacity utilisation fell to 74.3% from 74.4%.
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Historical bullets
BUNDS: Early focus will be on Supply
- A very tight range for the Bund overnight going into the European session, and the contract trades within Yesterday's 42 ticks range.
- Resistance moves down to 128.66, but better is seen towards 128.83.
- Supports are unchanged, at 127.88, followed by 127.45.
- It is worth keeping an eye on the US Tnotes (TYM5), Fed Bostic now favours 1 cut instead of 2 on the Tariff risks, and a break through 110.12+ support and 110.08, could open the contract for further lows.
- Today sees the German IFO, and out of the US, not normally a Market Mover, the Consumer Confidence given the Tariffs debacle.
- SUPPLY: UK £2bn 2023 (equates to 25.2k Gilt) could somewhat weigh, Germany €4.5bn Bobl (equates to 38.3k Bobl) should weigh, US Sells $69bn of 2yr Notes.
- SYNDICATION: France 2043 (shouldn't impact Bond futures).
- SPEAKERS: ECB Kazimir, Muller, Holzmann, Vujcic, Nagel, Fed Williams.
EURJPY TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 164.19 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 162.63 @ 07:10 GMT Mar 25
- SUP 1: 160.74 Low Mar 20
- SUP 2: 160.28 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 158.90 Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: 158.00 Round number support
A recent sell-off in EURJPY appears corrective and has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. Short-term pivot support to watch is 160.37, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would signal potential for a deeper retracement. Recent gains resulted in a print above resistance at 164.08, the Jan 24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish condition and open 164.90, the Dec 30 ‘24 high.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28
- RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 2: 118.56 High Mar 5
- RES 1: 117.48 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 117.25 @ Close Mar 25
- SUP 1: 115.75 Low Mar 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 115.52 2.618 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 115.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 114.81 3.000 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
Recent gains in BTP futures appear corrective. Note that the trend has recently been in oversold territory and the latest bounce is allowing the condition to unwind. Resistance to watch 117.48, the 20-day EMA, ahead of 118.56, the Mar 5 high. A resumption of weakness and a breach of 115.75, the Mar 14 low, would confirm a continuation of the downtrend and open 115.52, a Fibonacci projection.
