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The recent move down in EURJPY appears corrective. The recovery from Monday’s low highlights a potential short-term reversal and the end of the corrective cycle. A resumption of gains would open 164.90, the Dec 30 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 160.04, the Jan 13 low. Clearance of this level would be a bearish development.
The Aussie 10-yr futures contract continues to trade below the Dec 11 high of 95.851, and has traded through the Dec low. A stronger bearish theme would expose 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. For bulls, a confirmed reversal and a breach of 95.851, the Dec 11 high, would instead reinstate a bull cycle and refocus attention on resistance at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point.
The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest move lower is considered corrective. The pair has traded through the 20-day EMA and an extension lower would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch is 154.71, the 50-day EMA. A return higher and a breach of 158.87, the Jan 10 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 159.45, the Jul 12 ‘24 high.