ISRAEL: Sirens In Tel Aviv Highlight Restoration Of Hamas Offensive Capabilities
Mar-20 11:42
Barak Ravid at Axios posts on X: "Air raid sirens sound in Tel Aviv and central Israel after Hamas fires rockets from Gaza, IDF says. Why it matters: This is the first time in many months that rockets from Gaza were fired towards central Israel. It shows Hamas managed to restore some of its rocket launch capabilities"
- As noted earlier (see 'ISRAEL: Hamas Claims Talks w/Mediators Ongoing Amid Renewed Israeli Offensive', 0851GMT), the IDF is in the early stages of a new ground offensive within Gaza in the wake of the mass airstrikes of recent days. It has been unclear whether the IDF operations would be specifically targeted or a more broad-based operation. Should rocket launches aimed at central Israel resume on a regular basis it could see Israeli forces commit a much larger ground force to operations in Gaza.
- The Hamas attack comes at the same time that Israel finds itself in the crosshairs of Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels. Amid US strikes on Houthi targets, the group launched a missile at Israel overnight, the second such attempt (both were intercepted) since the recent escalation.
- Given US President Donald Trump's warnings against Iran regarding the Houthis actions, there remains a risk of a cycle of escalation that sees the resumption of the conflict in Gaza spurring wider Houthi attacks on Israel, Red Sea shipping, and the US navy, which the US then claims is in effect an attack by Iran, which in turn could risk direct US-Iranian conflict.
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US: Senate Expected To Confirm Lutnick As Commerce Secretary Today
Feb-18 11:39
The United States Senate is expected to confirm former CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, Howard Lutnick, as President Donald Trump's Commerce Secretary today. The Senate will also vote to advance the nomination of Kash Patel to serve as Director of the FBI.
- At Commerce, Lutnick will oversee a complex portfolio, including a large-scale trade review ahead of Trump's possible imposition of 'reciprocal' tariffs in early April. He will also head up the Bureau of Industry and Security, a department within Commerce that enforces export controls to safeguard US technology that was central to the Biden administration's measures against China.
- Semafor reports that Lutnick, "will be a go-to contact for Senate Republicans worried about Trump going too far," although there are some questions over his influence over Trump's trade policy.
- The Wall Street Journal reports that Commerce and the United States Trade Representative (USTR), appear to have been sidelined from discussions to formulate Trump’s trade policy.
- The Journal notes: “In their absence, a singular figure has risen as a leader of the trade agenda: Peter Navarro, the president’s special counselor on trade and manufacturing, known for his pugnacious personality and maximalist approach to tariffs.”
- Senator Thom Tillis (R-SC), articulating a view of moderate Republicans, said: “There are some people advising the president who view every tariff as found money. There are revenues to be derived from tariffs, but they have to be discounted against markets closing” because of retaliatory measures.
ESM ISSUANCE: 6-Month ESM-Bill Auction Results
Feb-18 11:32
| Type | 6-month bills |
| Maturity | Aug 21, 2025 |
| Amount | E1.099bln |
| Target | E1.1bln |
| Previous | E1.084bln |
| Avg yield | 2.339% |
| Previous | 2.485% |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.53x |
| Previous | 3.51x |
| Previous date | Jan 21, 2025 |
EQUITIES: Estoxx Put Spread
Feb-18 11:31
SX5E (19th Dec) 4900/4300ps, bought for 67.2 in 14k.
