STIR: Sizeable Hawkish Repricing With Powell Sticking To Prior Script
Mar-07 18:26
- There has been an increasingly large hawkish repricing in Fed rates as Fed Chair Powell stuck to his prior guidance around no need to hurry on rates whilst awaiting greater policies on US policy changes, rather than showing any greater concern on growth prospects.
- Shortly beforehand, Gov. Kugler (permanent voter, center) had talked on seeing “important” upside risks to inflation.
- Fed Funds futures show 27.5bp of cuts for June vs 31bp pre-Powell and 33bp pre-payrolls, whilst the Dec contract moves off what had been close to recent dovish extremes with 72bp vs 79bp pre-Powell and 76bp pre-NFPs.
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FOREX: Economic Data Weighs Heavily on USDJPY, Bear Cycle for Extends
Feb-05 18:26
- Yen outperformance remains the key feature of the day in G10 currency markets, as USDJPY looks to consolidate a 1.25% move lower, extending the most recent bearish theme for the pair. Moves have been underpinned by the stronger-than-expected Japanese wage data, fostering a more hawkish BOJ narrative, as well as core yields extending their slide lower in the aftermath of weaker US ISM Services data.
- USDJPY took out a number of supports throughout the session, including a key Fibonacci retracement at 152.55. This further expands the downside range, and the pair is now on track for the lowest daily close since December 10th, narrowing the gap to more meaningful support at 151.81, the Dec 12 low. Below here, attention would be on 151.06, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg.
- Following the US data, EURUSD managed to match the 50-day EMA resistance to the pip (at 1.0442), which has helped EURJPY to extend session lows in late trade, currently down 0.9% on the session, comfortably back below the pivotal 160.00 mark. Price action sees the cross narrow the gap to Monday’s lows of 157.97.
- Elsewhere, a solid showing for equities has kept the US dollar on the back foot, and the firmer risk sentiment has in turn boosted the likes of AUD and NZD which are up 0.6% and 0.75% respectively.
- Resistance levels in GBPUSD at 1.2503 (50-day EMA) and 1.2523 (Jan 27 high), have been breached Wednesday. This cancels a recent bearish threat and instead reinstates the bull cycle that started Jan 13. The break higher paves the way for a climb towards 1.2610, a Fibonacci retracement.
- German factory orders and UK construction PMI are highlights of a quiet Thursday calendar, before the Bank of England decision takes focus. US jobless claims and Fed speakers will also garner interest.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: MNI Speaks to Head of ISM's Services Index
Feb-05 18:08
- MNI spoke with the head of the ISM's services index about the outlook for demand and inflation -- On MNI Main Policy Wire now, see sales@marketnews.com for details.
US: White House Press Conference Underway Shortly
Feb-05 18:03
White House Press Secretary Kaoline Leavitt is shortly due to brief reporters at the White House. LIVESTREAM
- The presser comes amid a rapidly evolving news cycle, beginning with a potential North American trade war on Monday and shifting to Gaza comments made by President Donald Trump at a press conference alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday.
- Reporters are likely to probe Leavitt on China tariffs and an upcoming call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Leavitt is also likely to field extensive questions on Middle East policy and Trump's executive order returning the administration to 'maximum pressure' on Iran.
- Leavitt may also provide clues on Trump's preferred option for legislating Trump's agenda ahead of a meeting with Senate Republicans at Mar-a-Lago on Friday.
