US TSYS: Slightly Lower On The Day With The FOMC In Focus

• RES 4: 110-25   High Dec 12
• RES 3: 110-19   76.4% retracement of the Dec 6  - Jan 13 bear leg    
• RES 2: 110-14   High Dec 14
• RES 1: 110-00   High Feb 7 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE:‌‌ 109-05+ @ 10:53 GMT Feb 17
• SUP 1: 108-04/00 Low Feb 12 / Low Jan 16   
• SUP 2: 107-06   Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 107-04   Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 106-11   2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing  

Treasury futures remain above last week’s lows and price has risen above the 50-day EMA. A continuation higher would expose key resistance and a bull trigger at 110-00, the Feb 7 high. For bears, recent weakness resulted in a break of 108-20+, the Feb 4 low, highlighting the end of the corrective cycle between Jan 13 - Feb 7. A continuation lower would open 108-00, the Jan 16 low, and expose 107-06, the Jan 13 low and bear trigger.

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• The BTP/Bund spread is back at the 106.00bps level, 1.9bp tighter so far on the Day.
• The spread has found support multiple time at this level, back in December, January and also this Month.
• Technically, we could be having a falling wedge, would be bullish, but investors will be watching how it develops at these lower levels.
• A clear break through 106.00bps, opens to the Psychological 100.00, although better will be seen nearer the ~97.7bps area.

(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg).