CANADA DATA: Small Business Confidence Craters On US Trade War Concerns
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) Business Barometer fell to 25.0 in March from...
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STIR: Euribor Futures Back To Unchanged, MNI Event With Cipollone At 1400GMT
MNI’s event with ECB Executive Board member Cipollone is on “The ECB's Balance Sheet Policies and Implications in the Current Economic Context” is due to begin at 1400GMT/1500CET. Text of his opening remarks will be released on the ECB’s website (sign up here).
- Euribor futures are currently little changed through the blues, having drifted away from session lows over the last few hours. Volumes at the front of the strip have been a little below recent averages, with regional focus on Friday’s February flash PMIs. Options volumes have also been relatively contained.
- ECB-dated OIS price 24bps of easing through March, with 77bps of cumulative cuts priced through year-end.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-25 | 2.425 | -24.0 |
| Apr-25 | 2.271 | -39.4 |
| Jun-25 | 2.099 | -56.7 |
| Jul-25 | 2.035 | -63.0 |
| Sep-25 | 1.955 | -71.0 |
| Oct-25 | 1.933 | -73.2 |
| Dec-25 | 1.897 | -76.8 |
| Feb-26 | 1.895 | -77.0 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
US DATA: Empire State's Jump In Inflation, Drop In Optimism Look Tariff-Related
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey's index of general business conditions came in stronger than expected in February at 5.7 (a 3-month high, vs 0.0 expected, -12.6 prior). But the volatilty and details of the report raise the question of whether the Trump administration's threat of tariffs on New York State-neighboring Canada (implementation postponed to Mar 1 from Feb 1) and accompanying retaliatory tariffs, which rose to prominent attention ahead of the February survey dates (Feb 3-11), had something to do with the results.
- The 6-month ahead business outlook - which jumped 9.8 points in January to 36.7, the highest since Dec 2021 - pulled back 14.5 points in February to 22.2. That was the lowest since May 2024. The NY Fed didn't comment on the reasons for the pullback, merely saying in the report that "optimism about the outlook dropped noticeably".
- Adding to the theory that the survey shows a tariff impact, prices indices soared: current prices paid rose to 1 23-month high 40.2 (29.1 prior), with the 6-month expected prices paid up to a 32-month high. Current prices received jumped to 19.6 (9.3 prior), a 17-month high, though 6-month ahead prices received actually ticked lower to 42.4 (43.0 the month prior was a 25-month high).
- Contrary to the tariff thesis, New Orders, which fell to a 3-month low -8.6 in January (from positive 4.3 in Dec and a post-Dec 2021 high 20.7 in Nov), bounced strongly to 11.4 - back to a 3-month high and the 2nd strongest since mid-2023, so the "hard" data doesn't quite square with the concerns seen over the 6-month-ahead period.
- The Employment Index, which shifted positive in January for just the 2nd time in 15 months (1.2), fell back into negative territory in February (-3.6).
CANADA DATA: Core CPI Latest Trends
A reminder that CPIxFE will be impacted by the GST/HST holiday whereas median, trim and CPIX allow for indirect tax changes.
- Core CPI (median & trim av - BoC focus):
- % M/M: 0.23 in Jan'25 after 0.26 in Dec'24
- % 3mth ar: 3 in Jan'25 after 3.5 in Dec'24
- % 6mth ar: 3.1 in Jan'25 after 2.8 in Dec'24
- % Y/Y: 2.7 in Jan'25 after 2.55 in Dec'24
- CPI xFE (ex food & energy):
- % M/M: 0.13 in Jan'25 after 0.33 in Dec'24
- % 3mth ar: 2.1 in Jan'25 after 2.7 in Dec'24
- % 6mth ar: 2 in Jan'25 after 2.1 in Dec'24
- CPIX (ex 8 most volatile & indirect taxes):
- % M/M: 0.32 in Jan'25 after 0.32 in Dec'24
- % 3mth ar: 3.1 in Jan'25 after 2.9 in Dec'24
- % 6mth ar: 2.7 in Jan'25 after 2.3 in Dec'24
Source: Bloomberg, MNI
