US DATA: Small Business Worker Compensation Plans Fade In Mixed NFIB Jobs Report
The NFIB's Jobs Report for January was mixed but overall showed no reversal in the longer-term trend...
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EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.0825 High Nov 7
- RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 2: 1.0537 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0437/58 High Jan 6 / High Dec 30
- PRICE: 1.0354 @ 18:58 GMT Jan 7
- SUP 1: 1.0226 Low Jan 2
- SUP 2: 1.0209 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
- SUP 3: 1.0201 61.8% of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.0166 2.0% 10-dma envelope
The trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. The Jan 2 sharp sell-off reinforces current conditions and note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The 20-day EMA, at 1.0412, has been pierced. The next resistance to watch is 1.0458, the Dec 30 high. The bear trigger has been defined at 1.0226, the Jan 2 low.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Issuance Update
At least $27B corporate bonds have either priced or launched so far today, less than half of Monday's near $60B record. Still waiting for Kexim, SMFG and Daimler Truck NA details.
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/07 $6B *European Investment Bank (EIB) 5Y SOFR+42
- 01/07 $5B *ADB 3Y SOFR+31
- 01/07 $3.55B #BPCE $1.25B 6NC5 +142, $1.5B 11NC10 +162, $800M 21NC20 +195
- 01/07 $2B #Santander $1B 5Y +110, $1B 10Y +135
- 01/07 $2B #Dai-Ichi Life PerpNC10 6.2%
- 01/07 $1.6B #Republic of Chile 12Y +105
- 01/07 $1.5B #CIBC 5Y SOFR+71
- 01/07 $1.25B #HPS Corp Lending $750M 3Y +135, $500M +7Y +165
- 01/07 $1B #GA Global Funding $500M 5Y +97, $500M 10Y +127
- 01/07 $1b #Kuwait Finance House (KFH) 5Y SOFR Sukuk +95
- 01/07 $850M #APA Corp $350M 10Y +150, $500M 30Y +185
- 01/07 $600M #Met Tower 3Y +48
- 01/07 $500M #Boston Gas WNG 10Y +115
- 01/07 $500M #Protective Life 7& +85
- 01/07 $500M DBJ WNG 10Y SOFR+73
- 01/07 $Benchmark World Bank 7Y +54
- 01/07 $Benchmark Kexim 3Y +55a, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +75a, 10Y +90a
- 01/07 $Benchmark SMFG 5.25Y +78, 5.25Y SOFR+105, 7Y +88, 10Y +95
- 01/07 $Benchmark Daimler Truck Fin NA 3Y +65, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +82, 7Y +92, 10Y +102
- Expected Wednesday:
- 01/08 $Benchmark Kommunalbanken 5Y +51
- 01/08 $Benchmark Cncl of Europe Dev Bank 5Y SOFR+45a
- 01/08 $Benchmark Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) 5Y SOFR+45a
BONDS: Germany: Bobl Remains "Shortest" Contract In MNI Europe Pi (1/2)
From our Europe Pi positioning indicator out earlier (PDF):
- German contracts open 2025 in increasingly short structural positioning.
- Bobl remains the "shortest" contract at very short, while Buxl and Bund have shifted to short from flat previously. Schatz is now flat, but had been "long" in mid-Nov.
- Holiday period trade pointed to shorts being set.
