STIR: SOFR Options Update
Midmorning SOFR options leaning toward downside puts as underlying futures drift at/near session lows. Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 continue to recede vs. this morning's pre-CPI levels (*) as follows: Mar'25 at -0.5bp (-0.7bp), May'25 at -3.9bp (-6.3bp), Jun'25 at -8.9bp (-13.9bp), Jul'25 at -12.6bp (-18.9bp).
- +18,000 SFRU5 95.37/95.62 put spds, 3.5
- +6,000 2QM5 95.25 puts w/ 3QM5 95.25 put strip covered 13.0
- +10,000 SFRZ5 96.12/96.37 call spds, 6.0 ref 95.905/0.10%
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PIPELINE: $1.5B CBA 5Y SOFR Launched
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/13 $1.5B #CBA 5Y SOFR+69
- 01/13 $3B KFW +5Y +43a
- 01/13 $2B CADES 5Y SOFR+70a
- 01/13 $Benchmark Micron 10Y +130a
- 01/13 $Benchmark IFC 3Y SOFR+33a
- 01/13 $Benchmark CAF 5Y SOFR+90a
- 01/13 $Benchmark EBRD 5.5Y SOFR+42
- 01/13 $Benchmark Ares Strategic 7Y +200a
- 01/13 $Benchmark BNG Bank 5Y SOFR+50a
- 01/13 $Benchmark KHFC 5Y +95a, 5Y SOFR
- 01/13 $Benchmark Rabobank 3Y, 3Y SOFR, 8NC7
- 01/13 $Benchmark Blue Owl Tech Fin 3Y +215a
- 01/13 $Benchmark Apollo Debt Solutions 7Y +21a
- 01/13 $Benchmark Deere 10Y +90a, 30Y +105a
- 01/13 $Benchmark British Colombia 3Y SOFR+46a
- 01/13 $Benchmark Plains All American 10Y +145a
- 01/13 $Benchmark Eastern Energy Gas 10Y +130a, 30Y +150a
- 01/13 $Benchmark Standard Chartered 4NC3, 4NC3 SOFR, 11NC10
- 01/13 $Benchmark Citadel investor calls
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Mar'25 5Y Sale
- -5,000 FVH5 105-13.5, sell through 105-13.75 post time bid at 1023:37ET, DV01 $207,000. The 5Y contract trades 105-13.25 last
CANADA: Alberta Premier After Trump Meet-Don't Expect Exemptions From US Tariffs
Premier of the Canadian province of Alberta Danielle Smith has been talking to the media after a meeting between her and US President-elect Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. Smith says Canada "should have prepared [for the likelihood] that tariffs are coming." Says Canada "will have to respond if there is a 25% tariff". Says she is "not expecting any exemptions from tariffs." Smith's comments come
- After the meeting, Smith said “We had a friendly and constructive conversation during which I emphasized the mutual importance of the U.S. – Canadian energy relationship, and specifically, how hundreds of thousands of American jobs are supported by energy exports from Alberta,” Speaking to CBC, Smith says that "An oil embargo would risk a national unity crisis".
- Foreign Minister Melanie Joly is expected in Washington, D.C., this week in an effort to dissuade Trump team officials from imposing tariffs. However, it remains to be seen how effective the overtures from Trudeau gov't ministers will be given the comments directed towards the outgoing PM from the incoming president in recent weeks.
- With a change in leadership coming in Ottawa in March, and the strong probability of a snap general election shortly after, officials from the main opposition Conservative Party of Canada (or regional parties supportive of the CPC like Smith's United Conservative Party) could end up as more effective interlocutors with the Trump administration given that opinion polls show the party as strong favourites to win a majority and the closer ideological stances between the CPC and Trump's Republican party.
