BUNDS: Some early divergence betwen the US and Europe
Mar-27 07:20
- Some early divergence Between the Bund and Tnotes, and overall between Europe and the US.
Tnotes (TYM5) is testing the intraday low going into the Cash European open and continues to hover above the next area of interest at 110.10/110.08, ahead of the 4.40% in Yield, circa 110.04+. - Bund has closed Monday's gap Yesterday, and is staying close to the next resistance of 128.66, although better is seen at 128.83.
- Similar early price action in Equities, while the Emini holds onto small gains, the Estoxx (VGM5) continues to gap lower to test its lowest level in 9 sessions.
- Tariffs are the forefront with more threats from Trump, floating the idea that if Canada and the EU work together to harm the US Economy, larger Tariffs could be Imposed.
- There's no Tier 1 Data out of Europe, out of the US sees 3rd reading GDP, prelim Wholesales and IJC.
- SUPPLY: UK £3bn 2031 (equates to 18.5k Gilt) could weigh, US Sells $44bn of 7yr Notes.
- SPEAKERS: BoE Dhingra, {eu} ECB Villeroy, Guindos, Wunsch, Escriva, Schnabel, Fed Barkin, Collins.
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GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
Feb-25 07:16
- RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $2974.5 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $2956.2 - High Feb 24
- PRICE: $2938.2 @ 07:16 GMT Feb 25
- SUP 1: $2916.9 - Low Feb 21
- SUP 2: $2875.2 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2834.3 - Low Feb 6
- SUP 4: $2789.7 - 50-day EMA
A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal continues to trade at its latest highs. Fresh cycle highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2875.2, the 20-day EMA.
UK: Energy price cap adds around 0.06ppt more to headline CPI than BOE projected
Feb-25 07:12
- Energy price cap is a little higher than expected at £1849. This is a 6% increase.
- The BOE's forecasts had assumed that energy prices would be 7.51% higher than last year in its February MPR projections. The Y/Y increase in the price cap is actually 9.41% (so 1.90ppt higher than the BOE forecast).
- Based on the CPI 2025A weights (note these will be revised in February to 2024B weights) where electricity and has have a 3.32% weight, we estimate that this increase adds around 0.063ppt to the BOE's forecasts for headline CPI between April and June.
- That is less than a tenth of a percentage point, but enough to round the headline projections for both May and June up to 3.6%Y/Y to 1dp (April would remain at 3.6%Y/Y). Note that this does not take into account any other changes in prices, or changes the BOE made to its internal forecasts after the January inflation print was released.
MNI: GERMAN Q4 FINAL GDP -0.2% Q/Q, -0.2% Y/Y
Feb-25 07:09
- MNI: GERMAN Q4 FINAL GDP -0.2% Q/Q, -0.2% Y/Y
