BUNDS: Some early divergence betwen the US and Europe

• RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number   
• RES 3: $2974.5 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $2956.2 - High Feb 24
• PRICE: $2938.2 @ 07:16 GMT Feb 25
• SUP 1: $2916.9 - Low Feb 21  
• SUP 2: $2875.2 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: $2834.3 - Low Feb 6  
• SUP 4: $2789.7 - 50-day EMA

A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal continues to trade at its latest highs. Fresh cycle highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2875.2, the 20-day EMA.

• Energy price cap is a little higher than expected at £1849. This is a 6% increase.
• The BOE's forecasts had assumed that energy prices would be 7.51% higher than last year in its February MPR projections. The Y/Y increase in the price cap is actually 9.41% (so 1.90ppt higher than the BOE forecast).
• Based on the CPI 2025A weights (note these will be revised in February to 2024B weights) where electricity and has have a 3.32% weight, we estimate that this increase adds around 0.063ppt to the BOE's forecasts for headline CPI between April and June.
• That is less than a tenth of a percentage point, but enough to round the headline projections for both May and June up to 3.6%Y/Y to 1dp (April would remain at 3.6%Y/Y). Note that this does not take into account any other changes in prices, or changes the BOE made to its internal forecasts after the January inflation print was released.

• MNI: GERMAN Q4 FINAL GDP -0.2% Q/Q, -0.2% Y/Y