BUNDS: Some impressive moves Yesterday
- Some impressive moves in Bund yesterday, the single largest move for the early March expiry, and looking at the December expiry you would need to go back to early November to register over 118 ticks range, as Long end desks unwind more aggressive cuts.
- Both Equities and and EGBs are finding some early demand post Cash Govie Open, but given the push through the 135.00 figure overnight, 10yr Yield has now spiked above the 2.208% retracement today, this wasn't registered Yesterday due to the fast markets price action.
- Next support in Bund comes at 134.61, close to the 134.59 50.0% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle.
- Resistance moves down to 135.50.
- Today sees France, Spain final CPIs and nothing out of the US.
- Bundesbank publishes semi Annual Forecasts.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Villeroy, Holzaman, Centeno.
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USD: EURUSD at a 1yr low, USDJPY back above 155.00.
- It's another positive session for the Dollar, higher US Yield and some small unwind/profit taking in Equities have keep the Dollar on the front foot.
- Focus in G10 Yesterday was on the most traded pair, the EURUSD and the 2024 low level, that was situated at 1.0601, while it traded as low as 1.0595, so far it has found some demand.
- EURUSD is again testing the 1.0600 mark post Cash Govie open, so far printed a 1.0604 low.
- Since US Yields have rallied, the focus in early trade is also on the USDJPY, after it broke above 155.00 overnight, printed a 155.15 high, but short of the next immediate resistance seen at 155.22 (30th July high).
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 6145.26 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6103.88 1.500 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 6070.16 1.382 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 6053.25 High Nov 11
- PRICE: 5996.00 @ 07:18 GMT Nov 13
- SUP 1: 5927.25 High Oct 17 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 2: 5892.23/5809.43 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 5724.25 Low Nov 4 and a key support
- SUP 4: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. A key short-term support has been defined at 5724.25, the Nov 4 low. The latest rally resulted in a breach of the bull trigger at 5927.25, Oct 17 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. The 6000.0 psychological handle has been pierced. Sights are on 6070.16, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is at 5927.25, the Oct 17 high.
GOLD TECHS: Corrective Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: $2814.7- 3.618 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $2689.5/2750.0 - 20-day EMA / High Nov 5
- RES 1: $2644.4 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $2604.5 @ 07:18 GMT Nov 13
- SUP 1: $2584.9 - Low Sep 20
- SUP 2: $2547.0 - Low Sep18
- SUP 3: $2531.8 - High Aug 20
- SUP 4: $2492.0 - Low Sep 2
The trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. However, recent weakness has resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA, and Tuesday’s sell-off delivered a print below the 50-day EMA, at $2644.4. The breach signals scope for a deeper retracement towards $2547.0 the Sep 18 low. Firm resistance is seen at $2689.5, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this average is required to signal a reversal.
