BUNDS: Some Outstanding Moves in Bund and wider EGBs
- Some outstanding moves in Bund, plummeted 400 ticks in the past two sessions since the German Debt break on Tuesday, or 542 ticks just this Week, as Tariff risks started it all.
- Yesterday's Volume in Bund was likely a all time record high, with the contract trading just over 3.1 Million Lots.
- Regardless, Bund saw another Gap lower on the open, so far has found support just ahead of the 127.00 Figure, printed a 127.14 low, ahead of the next support at 126.98 (equated to 2.90% Yesterday).
- The Opening gap is up to 127.86, and recovery above this level opens to 128.42 next.
- It's a lighter day on the Data front, UK DMP is scheduled, but more focus on US IJC, ahead of the NFP Tomorrow.
- ALL EYES will be on the ECB and while an expected 25bps cut should be delivered, the presser will be clearly watched for any forward rate hints, and views on the potential European Defence Spending spree, and those repricing Yield moves., although Madame Lagarde could stay clear of that.
- SUPPLY: Spain 6s, 10s plus Linker, France 10s, 15s, 20s.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Lagarde, Fed Harker, Waller, BoE Mann.
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BTP TECHS: (H5) Has Traded Through Key Moving Averages
- RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 120.45 HIgh Jan 3
- PRICE: 120.34 @ Close Feb 3
- SUP 1: 118.65/117.16 Low Jan 24 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)
Recent gains in BTP futures continue to highlight a corrective phase. The latest move higher has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50- day EMAs. This signals scope for an extension of the bull cycle and sights are on 120.98, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would highlight a reversal and the end of the correction.
EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: 164.90 High Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 164.08 High Jan 24
- RES 2: 161.97 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 160.48 Intraday high
- PRICE: 159.91 @ 07:06 GMT Feb 4
- SUP 1: 157.97 Low Feb 3
- SUP 2: 156.99 Low Dec 4
- SUP 3: 156.18 Low Dec 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24
EURJPY traded to a fresh short-term cycle low Monday, confirming a resumption of the bear leg that started Dec 30 last year. An important retracement point at 158.24, 76.4% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for an extension towards 156.18, the Dec 3 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch, and a pivot level, is 161.97, the 50-day EMA.
GILT TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 94.50 High Dec 16
- RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 93.64 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 93.54 High Feb 3
- PRICE: 93.19@ Close Feb 3
- SUP 1: 92.11/91.52 20-day EMA / Low Jan 24
- SUP 2: 91.10 Low Jan 20
- SUP 3: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 88.87 2.764 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
Recent gains in Gilt futures continue to highlight a corrective phase and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. Last week’s high print and Monday’s climb, reinforce current conditions. The contract has traded through 93.09, the Dec 20 high. Sights are on 93.64, a Fibonacci retracement. The bear trigger has been defined at 88.96, the Jan 13 low. Initial firm support lies at 91.52, the Jan 24 low. First support 92.11, the 20-day EMA.
