BUNDS: Some Outstanding Moves in Bund and wider EGBs

• RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 12      
• RES 3: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 2: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 1: 120.45 HIgh Jan 3     
• PRICE: 120.34 @ Close Feb 3 
• SUP 1: 118.65/117.16 Low Jan 24 / 13 and the bear trigger          
• SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)     

Recent gains in BTP futures continue to highlight a corrective phase. The latest move higher has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50- day EMAs. This signals scope for an extension of the bull cycle and sights are on 120.98, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would highlight a reversal and the end of the correction.

• RES 4: 164.90 High Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 164.08 High Jan 24   
• RES 2: 161.97 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 160.48 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 159.91 @ 07:06 GMT Feb 4  
• SUP 1: 157.97 Low Feb 3
• SUP 2: 156.99 Low Dec 4     
• SUP 3: 156.18 Low Dec 3 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 1155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24   

EURJPY traded to a fresh short-term cycle low Monday, confirming a resumption of the bear leg that started Dec 30 last year. An important retracement point at 158.24, 76.4% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for an extension towards 156.18, the Dec 3 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch, and a pivot level, is 161.97, the 50-day EMA.

• RES 4: 94.50 High Dec 16 
• RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 2: 93.64 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg
• RES 1: 93.54 High Feb 3                 
• PRICE: 93.19@ Close Feb 3
• SUP 1: 92.11/91.52 20-day EMA / Low Jan 24                                
• SUP 2: 91.10 Low Jan 20
• SUP 3: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 88.87 2.764 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing

Recent gains in Gilt futures continue to highlight a corrective phase and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. Last week’s high print and Monday’s climb, reinforce current conditions. The contract has traded through 93.09, the Dec 20 high. Sights are on 93.64, a Fibonacci retracement. The bear trigger has been defined at 88.96, the Jan 13 low. Initial firm support lies at 91.52, the Jan 24 low.  First support 92.11, the 20-day EMA.