EUROPEAN INFLATION: Spain Core Inflation Revised One Tenth Upwards From Flash

• RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 
• RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13               
• RES 2: 0.6331 High Jan 24 and a key resistance   
• RES 1: 0.6301/09 50-day EMA / Intraday high 
• PRICE: 0.6290 @ 07:54 GMT Feb 12 
• SUP 1: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.5931 1.764 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

AUDUSD continues to trade at its recent highs. Despite the latest bounce, the trend structure remains bearish. The Feb 3 fresh cycle low confirmed a continuation of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of the bear leg would open 0.6045, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is at 0.6301 (pierced), the 50-day EMA, and 0.6331, the Jan 24 high. A clear break of both levels would be bullish.

Some attention on the European open, although a new record high might not be on the card, the Dax, Estoxx, CAC and FTSE futures are all on the edge of their respective record highs, so nothing can be ruled out for Cash Indices.

• Estox 50: +0.40%, Dax: +0.41%, CAC: +0.19%, FTSE +0.12%, SMI +0.27%

The Swedish unemployment claims rate was 7.0% for the third consecutive month in January. This supports our view that while overall labour market conditions remain subdued, it appears as though we have passed the peak pace of deterioration. This underscores expectations for the Riksbank to remain on hold in March, as its assesses the impact of past hikes on the economy.

• Total vacancies were ~100k in January, little changed from December. Relative to a year-ago, vacancies have fallen 22% Y/Y.
• 5k people were served redundancy notices in January. The 3mma of 5.1k remains below last year’s peak of 7.1k.
• January LFS data is due next Monday morning.