EUROPEAN INFLATION: Spain Sees Lower Leisure And Culture Inflation in January
Spanish January preliminary HICP came in higher than expected on the yearly rate at +2.9% Y/Y (vs +2.8% cons and prior) and the sequential reading at -0.1% M/M (-0.3% cons; 0.4% prior). The national CPI also came in above expectations at +3.0% Y/Y (vs 2.9% cons; 2.8% prior) and 0.2% M/M (vs -0.1% cons; 0.5% prior).
- Core CPI came in below expectations, at +2.4% Y/Y (vs 2.5% cons; 2.6% prior).
- The headline rate was driven upwards by a sequential increase in fuel prices and "although to a lesser extent, to electricity prices, which rose more than in the same month of the previous year". "On the other hand, the downward influence of leisure and culture, whose prices decreased more than in January last year, is noteworthy", INE added.
- Overall, there is little colour in the press release, so it can be tough to compare the print with the details of analysts' expectations exactly ahead of the final data. However, core coming in below expectations paired with INE flagging lower leisure and culture inflation should be interpreted as a good sign re services stickiness.
- For context, Spain represented 11% of the Eurozone HICP basket in 2024.
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SILVER TECHS: Bearish Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $30.676 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $28.945 @ 07:58 GMT Dec 31
- SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Flag Formation
- RES 4: 1.4667 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4367 @ 07:52 GMT Dec 31
- SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.4277/4103 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
- SUP 4: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.42779, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt Opening call, 92.25.
- Also regarding the timing for the SETT price window, this should happen at 12:13-12:15 (GMT) for Futures and Options.
