US TSYS: Steadily Weaker As Fed Rate Cut Optimism Dims Again

• RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
• RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13               
• RES 2: 0.6302/41 High Jan 50-day EMA   
• RES 1: 0.6233/47 20-day EMA / High Jan 15
• PRICE: 0.6199 @ 20:07 GMT Jan 17 
• SUP 1: 0.6131 Low Jan 13   
• SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.5994 1.618proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective. The pair has recently breached support at 0.6179, the Dec 31 low, maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 0.6100 handle next. Initial firm resistance is 0.6233, 20-day EMA (pierced). The 50-day EMA is at 0.6346.

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8 
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 162.14/89 50-day EMA / High Jan 15 
• PRICE: 160.46 @ 20:04 GMT Jan 17 
• SUP 1: 159.73 Low Jan 17     
• SUP 2: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 158.67 Low Dec 11
• SUP 4: 158.24 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle

EURJPY traded lower last Thursday marking an extension of the current bear cycle. The cross has pierced support at 160.04, the Jan 13 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. The next price point to watch is 159.51, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a move above 162.89, the Jan 15 high, would reinstate the recent bullish theme.

• RES 4: 160.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 3: 159.45 High Jul 12
• RES 2: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing  
• RES 1: 158.08/87 High Jan 15 / 10 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: 156.18 @ 19:31 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 154.92 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 154.44 Low Dec 19 
• SUP 3: 153.99 Trendline support drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low 
• SUP 4: 153.16 Low Dec 17  

The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and last week’s move lower appears corrective - for now. The pair has traded through the 20-day EMA and an extension lower would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Support to watch is 154.90, the 50-day EMA. A return higher and a breach of 158.87, the Jan 10 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 159.45, the Jul 12 ‘24 high.