US: Stephen Miran Senate Nomination Hearing Underway
Feb-27 15:10
A Senate Banking Committee nomination hearing is underway for Stephen Miran to be Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisors. LIVESTREAM
- Miran is considered one of the key ideologues of the Trump administration’s trade and economic agenda, advocating for "restructuring the global trading system" and bringing down the value of the US dollar.
- Miran wrote in November: “The root of the economic imbalances lies in persistent dollar overvaluation that prevents the balancing of international trade, and this overvaluation is driven by inelastic demand for reserve assets. As global GDP grows, it becomes increasingly burdensome for the United States to finance the provision of reserve assets and the defense umbrella, as the manufacturing and tradeable sectors bear the brunt of the costs.”
- Bloomberg notes on Miran's paper: "The 41-page document has spawned an interpretive frenzy, drawing in the likes of JPMorgan Chase and Apollo Management — and it’s even helped drive market moves, despite the author’s insistence that he’s not laying out a policy roadmap."
- The Financial Post has a useful overview of Miran's various positions here.
- The panel meeting also includes nomination hearings for Jeffrey Kessler, to be Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security, Department of Commerce; Mr. William Pulte, to be Director, Federal Housing Finance Agency; and Jonathan McKernan, to be Director, Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection.
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GILTS: Off Lows Alongside Tsys, Supply & Reeves Due Tomorrow
Jan-28 15:10
Gilts bid alongside Tsys in recent trade, although futures are unable to break above this morning’s highs on the initial test and fade from recovery highs.
- Contract last -12 at 92.30 vs. highs of 92.40.
- Initial support and resistance levels remain untouched (91.10/92.68), leaving the short-term bullish cycle within the longer run bearish trend intact.
- Yields little changed across the curve.
- Spread to Bunds 2bp tighter at 203.3bp, spread on track for the lowest close since October, with 200bp presenting the next downside target of note if we close here.
- BoE-dated OIS little changed on the day, showing ~71bp of cuts through year-end.
- SONIA futures -0.5 to +1.5.
- Looking ahead, tomorrow will see the DMO come to market with GBP3bln of the 0.875% Jul-33 green gilt.
- Seemingly still no set time for Chancellor Reeves' Wednesday address, with The Telegraph reporting a window for the address during "Wednesday morning."
- Our political risk team notes that the most eye-catching headlines from Reeves' speech could centre on the governments support for the expansion of three major London-adjacent airports: Heathrow, Gatwick and Luton. This wouldn’t be market moving.
US TSY FUTURES: Post-Consumer Confidence React
Jan-28 15:06
- Treasury futures remain in negative territory following lower than expected Conference Board Consumer Confidence data.
- Futures had pared losses/climbed to session highs on mini-version of Monday's DeepSeek-tied risk-off move as Nvidia trades weaker again this morning. Reversal soon followed, however:
- Currently, the Mar'25 10Y contract trades -7.5 at 108-29.5, off late overnight low of 108-25.5. Futures remain inside technical ranges: support well below at 108-00/107-06 (Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger), nearly breached yesterday - resistance above at 109-12+ (50-day EMA).
- Cross-asset moves: Bloomberg US$ index still bid but off highs at 1300.58 (+3.74), Gold +11.45 at 2752.26, stocks firmer (SPX Eminis +9.0 at 6055.75.
EGB SYNDICATION: Austria dual-tranche: Priced
Jan-28 14:59
New 10-year Feb-35 RAGB
- Reoffer price 99.596 to yield 2.997%.
- Spread set earlier at MS+48bps (guidance was MS+51bps area)
- Size: E5bln inc E250mln retained (MNI expected E4.5-5.0bln including E250-500mln retention)
- Books closed in excess of E35bln (inc E3.15bln JLM interest)
- HR 98% vs 2.50% Feb-35 Bund
- Maturity: 20 February 2035
- Coupon: 2.950% Long first
- ISIN: AT0000A3HU25
1.85% May-49 Green RAGB tap
- Reoffer price 77.575 to yield 3.19%
- Spread set at MS+78bps (guidance was MS+80bps area)
- Size: E1.5bln inc E250mln retained (MNI expects E1.0-2.0bln)
- Books closed in excess of E15bln (inc E800mln JLM interest)
- HR 100% vs 1.25% Aug-48 Bund
- ISIN: AT0000A2Y8G4
For both:
- JLMs: BofA Securities, Deutsche Bank, Erste Group, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Raiffeisen Bank International
- Timing: Hedge deadline 14:10GMT / 15:10CET
From market source / Bloomberg
