EQUITIES: Stocks Set for Soft Open, DAX Remains the Heaviest Hit

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance  
• RES 1: $33.450 - 76.4% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg                                
• PRICE: $32.898 @ 07:51 GMT Feb 19   
• SUP 1: $31.606/100 - 20- and 50-day EMA values         
• SUP 2: $29.704 - Low Jan 27 
• SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 

A bull theme in Silver remains intact despite the pullback from last Friday’s high. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 19 and sights are on $33.450, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would further strengthen a bull theme. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 31.100, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this level would highlight a potential reversal.

• RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number   
• RES 3: $2996.9 - 4.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $2942.7 - High Feb 11 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: $2935.1 @ 07:46 GMT Feb 19
• SUP 1: $2864.2 - Low Feb 12  
• SUP 2: $2833.2 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: $2807.3 - Low Feb 4  
• SUP 4: $2756.5 - 50-day EMA

A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal continues to hold on to the bulk of its recent gains. Fresh highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2833.2, the 20-day EMA.                   

Very modest hawkish adjustments in GBP STIRs on the back of the mixed UK CPI data.

• BoE-dated OIS now shows 53.0bp of cuts through year-end vs. 53.5bp at yesterday’s close.
• Further forwards, 20.5bp of easing is showing through May (when we expect the next BoE cut to be deployed), with only 1bp of easing priced for next month.
• SONIA futures flat to -2.0.
• A reminder that we don’t think that today’s data will shift the needle for any MPC member’s March vote.
• The MPC has shown through its wider communications that it's not too concerned about energy CPI increasing later this year, but if food prices also increase and core goods prices settle at higher levels, that's going to make it harder to get headline CPI back to target without services coming in lower than pre-pandemic levels on a sustainable basis.
• Little of note on the UK calendar for the remainder of today, which should leave focus on continued digestion of the data and macro/cross-market cues.