SWEDEN: Strong Retail Sales In December, Some Questions On Seasonal Adjustment

• RES 4: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
• RES 3: $2664.5 - High Dec 16
• RES 2: $2726.2 - High Dec 12    
• RES 1: $2637.3/2692.8 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 13     
• PRICE: $2607.7 @ 07:22 GMT Dec 31 
• SUP 1: $2583.6 - Low Dec 19   
• SUP 2: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
• SUP 3: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support 
• SUP 4: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12  

A bear threat in Gold remains present. The yellow metal traded sharply lower on Dec 18 and the move undermines a recent bull theme. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. MA studies are in a bull mode position highlighting a medium-term uptrend and this suggests that the latest sell-off is likely a correction. Initial pivot resistance is $2637.3, the 50-day EMA. A breach of this EMA would be positive for bulls.

• Europe is closed and the US and the UK will have an early close as we turn the page on 2024.
• US Tnotes (TYH5) continues to see a decent recovery in Futures, right on the June High in Yield of 4.6357%, tested on the 26th December with a 4.6393% high on that day.
• Further upside continuation in futures will see the next immediate resistance in Futures at 109.08+ (4.48% in Yield), but the lack of liquidity will likely keep the contract fairly subdued, given that it has only traded 50k lots overnight and into the European session.
• There's no notable data, nor speakers for the session

• RES 4: 94.50 High Dec 16   
• RES 3: 93.64 High Dec 17  
• RES 2: 93.38/45 High Dec 18 / 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 92.46/93.09 High Dec 12 / 21              
• PRICE: 92.12 @ Close Dec 30
• SUP 1: 91.64 Low Dec 19                        
• SUP 2: 91.58 4.382 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
• SUP 3: 91.45 4.500 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
• SUP 4: 91.33 4.618 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing

A strong bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and Monday’s gains are considered corrective - for now. The recent breach of 91.87, the Dec 19 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 91.58 next, a 4.382 projection of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing. Initial firm resistance is at 93.09, the Dec 20 high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 93.45, and the average is seen as an important hurdle for bulls.