LATAM: Summary – February 13
Feb-13 11:24
- On Thursday, a majority of analysts expect the BCRP to stay on hold, albeit with risks of a further cut, given recent soft inflation data. In Brazil, December retail sales data are due, while in Argentina, monthly CPI inflation is expected to slow to 2.3% m/m in January, from 2.7%.
- In the US, the PPI print and weekly claims figures are the datapoints of focus ahead, while the central bank speaker slate is much quieter, with just the ECB's Nagel on the docket, appearing in Glasgow at 1700GMT/1200ET.
- The USD Index is softer, edging lower as markets extend the reaction to Trump's opening of Ukraine negotiations with Russia's Putin late yesterday. The USD Index is toward the February lows, but a further 0.5% decline would be needed before any test of 107.296 and 106.969 support.
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EQUITIES: European Equities are performing well
Jan-14 11:21
- The Estoxx futures is extending further gains, the US lags, and the Tech sector in Europe leads, in second place behind Auto&Parts.
- The Tech sector (SX8P) is up 1.3% and next resistance will be at last Friday's high of 838.50.
- As noted on the European Cash Govie open, and while this is not a Tech level, the Estoxx (VGH5) still needs a pullback up to 5040.00, now at 5025.00 to reverse Friday's post US Data sell off.
US TSY FUTURES: CFTC Shows H Funds & A Managers Cutting Exposure To Start ‘25
Jan-14 11:12
The latest CFTC CoT report showed hedge funds and asset managers lightening their overall net exposure in the week to January 7.
- Levered funds trimmed net shorts across the curve, unwinding over $16.5mn of DV01 equivalent exposure. They remain net short in all contracts.
- Asset managers trimmed their net long position. The exception to the broader theme came via FY and TY futures, where they added to existing longs. They remain net long in all contracts.
- Meanwhile, non-commercial participants added to (TY & WN) and trimmed net short exposure (TU, FV, UXY & US) at different points on the curve.
Source: MNI - Market News/CFTC/Bloomberg
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Trend Needle Points North
Jan-14 11:10
- In FX, the trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and recent short-term gains have proved to be a correction. Friday’s move lower resulted in a print below 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. The break of 1.0226 confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 1.0138 next, a 1.764 projection of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing. Resistance to watch is 1.0458, Dec 30 high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 1.0361.
- The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and the pair traded to a fresh trend low on Monday. Last week’s move down confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant bear trend. Sights are on 1.2087 next, a 0.764 projection of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2367, the Jan 9 high.
- The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last week’s fresh cycle high, reinforces the bullish theme. The recent breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 159.45, the Jul 12 high. Initial firm support is 156.78, the 20-day EMA.
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