EU: Summit On Defence & Ukraine Set To Get Underway As Leaders Arrive

Mar-06 11:13

The special European Council summit will get underway in Brussels at the bottom of the hour. EU member state leaders are arriving at present, delivering doorstep comments regarding European security and the war in Ukraine. The schedule for the summit can be found here. Livestreams of doorsteps here and here. Initial comments at the leaders' roundtable will be broadcast on the first link provided, but the main talks will - as usual - take place behind closed doors. 

  • Given the significant nature of the summit, there is a strong likelihood that the meeting will continue into the small hours of 7 March, with no timeframe for when the conclusions will be published or the closing press conference will take place.
  • Doorstep comments from two prominent figures in European defence:
    • French President Emmanuel Macron: "I want to believe the US will remain at our side, but we have to be ready if not...We will have to make more investments in defence...We will open the debate to extend France's nuclear umbrella to European partners"
    • Polish PM Donald Tusk: "Europe must meet the challenge of the new arms race...Europe will rearm quicker, smarter, and more effectively than Russia...Protecting the eastern border of the EU is a priority which nobody now questions...The first thing we should do is fully secure the EU border, especially with Russia and Belarus. The US is now a more demanding partner, but the alliance with the US must be an absolute priority...Europe as a whole is able to win every conflict with Russia - we are stronger."

Historical bullets

ECB: Rehn Backs EU Retaliation Against US Tariffs

Feb-04 11:11

Bank of Finland Governor Rehn’s interview with the FT focuses solely on the prospect of a trade war with the US, not touching on monetary policy matters (though, his views around monetary policy ceasing to become restrictive in Spring/Summer this year are well-known at this stage). Some highlights:

  • "The last thing we need is a new trade war between allies but we need to take proportionate policy measures [in case the EU is going to be targeted by the US],"
  • “If you ask economists, the majority would say that it would be better for everybody not to retaliate. But this is not only [about] economics, this is mostly politics"…."It's better to prepare policy measures, consult member states and in case Europe will be concretely targeted by tariffs, then make it more specific”.
  • "Tariffs will hit most American consumers and will have an inflationary effect on the US economy,"
  • “There seems to be a different kind of rationality [in Washington] than to what we are used to in international relations,"…."As President Trump has himself stated, he's a 'tariff man' and it seems to be a very ideological issue for him and his administration".

US: SOFR FIX - 04/02/25

Feb-04 11:09

SOFR FIX - Source BBG/CME

  • 1M 4.30733 -0.00535
  • 3M 4.30188 -0.00125
  • 6M 4.26173 0.01066
  • 12M 4.19270 0.02496

SONIA: Put spread strip

Feb-04 11:02

SFIM5 95.85/95.65ps 1x2 with SFIU5 96.00/95.70ps 1x2, bought the strip for 5.25 in 2.5k.